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The Rise of China in the International Trade Network: A Community Core Detection Approach

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  • Zhen Zhu
  • Federica Cerina
  • Alessandro Chessa
  • Guido Caldarelli
  • Massimo Riccaboni

Abstract

Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of complex systems ranging from biology to computer science and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995–2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. We provide a multilevel description of the evolution of the network where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) and the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members) are related. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a simple dynamic-edge-weight mechanism.

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  • Zhen Zhu & Federica Cerina & Alessandro Chessa & Guido Caldarelli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2014. "The Rise of China in the International Trade Network: A Community Core Detection Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-8, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0105496
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0105496
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    3. Rodolfo Metulini & Massimo Riccaboni & Paolo Sgrignoli & Zhen Zhu, 2017. "The Indirect Effects of FDI on Trade: A Network Perspective," Working Papers 04/2017, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Mar 2017.
    4. Matthew Smith & Yasaman Sarabi, 2021. "UK trading patterns within and between regions in the automotive sector—A network analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 510-529, February.
    5. Zhang, Shuhong & Wang, Lin & Liu, Zhixin & Wang, Xiaofan, 2016. "Evolution of international trade and investment networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 752-763.
    6. Federica Cerina & Zhen Zhu & Alessandro Chessa & Massimo Riccaboni, 2015. "World Input-Output Network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, July.
    7. Alvaro Domínguez & Carlos Mendez, 2019. "Industrial Productivity Divergence and Input-Output Network Structures: Evidence from Japan 1973–2012," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-14, May.
    8. Yue Pu & Yunting Li & Jinjin Zhang, 2023. "Features and evolution of the ‘Belt and Road’ regional value chain: Complex network analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2134-2156, July.
    9. Rita María del Río-Chanona & Jelena Grujić & Henrik Jeldtoft Jensen, 2017. "Trends of the World Input and Output Network of Global Trade," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, January.
    10. Veres, Anita, 2016. "Competitiveness of the BRICS Countries on the Field of International Higher Education," Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference (2016), Rovinj, Croatia, in: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Rovinj, Croatia, 8-9 September 2016, pages 83-90, IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, Zagreb.
    11. Olivera Kostoska & Sonja Mitikj & Petar Jovanovski & Ljupco Kocarev, 2020. "Core-periphery structure in sectoral international trade networks: A new approach to an old theory," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-24, April.
    12. Alessandro Chessa & Irene Crimaldi & Massimo Riccaboni & Luca Trapin, 2014. "Cluster Analysis of Weighted Bipartite Networks: A New Copula-Based Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(10), pages 1-12, October.
    13. Zhen Zhu & Michelangelo Puliga & Federica Cerina & Alessandro Chessa & Massimo Riccaboni, 2015. "Global Value Trees," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-17, May.
    14. Zhao, Yiran & Gao, Xiangyun & An, Haizhong & Xi, Xian & Sun, Qingru & Jiang, Meihui, 2020. "The effect of the mined cobalt trade dependence Network's structure on trade price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Merza, Ádám & London, András & Kiss, István Márton & Pelle, Anita & Dombi, József & Németh, Tamás, 2016. "A világkereskedelem hálózatelméleti vizsgálatának lehetőségeiről [The scope for analysis of world trade through network theory]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 79-98.
    16. Paolo Bartesaghi & Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi, 2022. "Community structure in the World Trade Network based on communicability distances," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 405-441, April.

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