The rise of China in the international trade network: a community core detection approach
AbstractTheory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of static networks ranging from biology to computer and social sciences to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995-2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. Most importantly, we have a multilevel description of the evolution where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) tend to be correlated with the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members). In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a preferential attachment mechanism both inter- and intra- communities.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca in its series Working Papers with number 4/2014.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2014
Date of revision: Apr 2014
Complex Networks; International Trade; Community Detection;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-05-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-INT-2014-05-04 (International Trade)
- NEP-SEA-2014-05-04 (South East Asia)
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