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Prediction in complex systems: the case of the international trade network

Author

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  • Alexandre Vidmer
  • An Zeng
  • Mat'uv{s} Medo
  • Yi-Cheng Zhang

Abstract

Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction algorithms to data on the international trade between countries. This data can be represented as a complex network where links connect countries with the products that they export. Link prediction techniques based on heat and mass diffusion processes are employed to obtain predictions for products exported in the future. These baseline predictions are improved using a recent metric of country fitness and product similarity. The overall best results are achieved with a newly developed metric of product similarity which takes advantage of causality in the network evolution.

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  • Alexandre Vidmer & An Zeng & Mat'uv{s} Medo & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2015. "Prediction in complex systems: the case of the international trade network," Papers 1511.05404, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1511.05404
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    1. Wu, Rui-Jie & Shi, Gui-Yuan & Zhang, Yi-Cheng & Mariani, Manuel Sebastian, 2016. "The mathematics of non-linear metrics for nested networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 460(C), pages 254-269.
    2. Xibo Wang & Jianping Ge & Wendong Wei & Hanshi Li & Chen Wu & Ge Zhu, 2016. "Spatial Dynamics of the Communities and the Role of Major Countries in the International Rare Earths Trade: A Complex Network Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Feng, Sida & Li, Huajiao & Qi, Yabin & Guan, Qing & Wen, Shaobo, 2017. "Who will build new trade relations? Finding potential relations in international liquefied natural gas trade," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1226-1238.
    4. Yichi Zhang & Zhiliang Dong & Sen Liu & Peixiang Jiang & Cuizhi Zhang & Chao Ding, 2021. "Forecast of International Trade of Lithium Carbonate Products in Importing Countries and Small-Scale Exporting Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Freire, Clovis, 2019. "Economic diversification: A model of structural economic dynamics and endogenous technological change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 13-28.
    6. Cappelli, Federica & Carnazza, Giovanni & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2023. "Crude oil, international trade and political stability: Do network relations matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. Changping Zhao & Mengru Liu & Yu Gong & Yingying Hou & Xuping Cao, 2022. "The Political Influence Pattern of the “Eurasia Central Region†Based on Syria and Ukraine Events," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    8. Hou, Wenyu & Liu, Huifang & Wang, Hui & Wu, Fengyang, 2018. "Structure and patterns of the international rare earths trade: A complex network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 133-142.
    9. Yue Pu & Yunting Li & Jinjin Zhang, 2023. "Features and evolution of the ‘Belt and Road’ regional value chain: Complex network analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2134-2156, July.
    10. Xuanru Zhou & Hua Zhang & Shuxian Zheng & Wanli Xing & Pei Zhao & Haiying Li, 2022. "The Crude Oil International Trade Competition Networks: Evolution Trends and Estimating Potential Competition Links," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Liu, sen & Dong, Zhiliang, 2019. "Who will trade bauxite with whom? Finding potential links through link prediction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Hao Liao & Xiao-Min Huang & Xing-Tong Wu & Ming-Kai Liu & Alexandre Vidmer & Ming-Yang Zhou & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2018. "Enhancing Countries’ Fitness with Recommender Systems on the International Trade Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-12, October.
    13. Yu, Fei & Zeng, An & Gillard, Sébastien & Medo, Matúš, 2016. "Network-based recommendation algorithms: A review," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 452(C), pages 192-208.
    14. Zhong, Weiqiong & An, Haizhong & Fang, Wei & Gao, Xiangyun & Dong, Di, 2016. "Features and evolution of international fossil fuel trade network based on value of emergy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 868-877.
    15. Yu, Zhuangxiong & Cheng, Jiajia & Mukhopadhaya, Pundarik & Dong, Jiemiao, 2023. "Do information spillovers across products aggravate product market monopoly? An examination with Chinese data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Zhu, Zhiyun & Dong, Zhiliang & Zhang, Yanxing & Suo, Guibin & Liu, Sen, 2020. "Strategic mineral resource competition: Strategies of the dominator and nondominator," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Giovanni Carnazza & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2022. "Network analysis and Eurozone trade imbalances," Papers 2209.09837, arXiv.org.
    18. Chen, Guang & Kong, Rui & Wang, Yixin, 2020. "Research on the evolution of lithium trade communities based on the complex network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    19. Hao Liao & Xiao-Min Huang & Xing-Tong Wu & Ming-Kai Liu & Alexandre Vidmer & Mingyang Zhou & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2019. "Enhancing countries' fitness with recommender systems on the international trade network," Papers 1904.02412, arXiv.org.

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