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African Stock Markets: Efficiency and Relative Predictability

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  • Graham Smith
  • Aneta Dyakova

Abstract

The weak form of the efficient markets hypothesis is tested for eight African stock markets using three finite-sample variance ratio tests. A rolling window captures short-horizon predictability, tracks changes in predictability and is used to rank markets by relative predictability. These stock markets experience successive periods when they are predictable and then not predictable; this is consistent with the adaptive markets hypothesis. The degree of predictability varies widely: the least predictable African stock markets are those located in Egypt, South Africa and Tunisia, while the most predictable are in Kenya, Zambia and Nigeria.

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  • Graham Smith & Aneta Dyakova, 2014. "African Stock Markets: Efficiency and Relative Predictability," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 258-275, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:82:y:2014:i:2:p:258-275
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    2. Zivanemoyo Chinzara & Radhika Lahiri & En Te Chen, 2017. "Financial liberalization and sectoral reallocation of capital in South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 309-356, February.
    3. Anagnostidis, P. & Varsakelis, C. & Emmanouilides, C.J., 2016. "Has the 2008 financial crisis affected stock market efficiency? The case of Eurozone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 116-128.
    4. Gyamfi NE & Kyei KA & Gill R, 2016. "African Stock Markets and Return Predictability," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(5), pages 91-99.
    5. Adeabah, David & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2023. "How far have we come and where should we go after 30+ years of research on Africa's emerging financial markets? A systematic review and a bibliometric network analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-49.
    7. Deniz Erer & Elif Erer & Selim Güngör, 2023. "The aggregate and sectoral time-varying market efficiency during crisis periods in Turkey: a comparative analysis with COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    8. Emmanuel Numapau Gyamfi & Kwabena A Kyei & Ryan Gill, 2016. "Stationarity of African Stock Markets under an ESTAR framework," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(35), pages 93-101, November.

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