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The efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from ten African stock markets

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  • Mlambo, Chipo
  • Biekpe, Nicholas

Abstract

The paper investigates the weak-form efficiency of ten African stock markets using the runs test methodology for serial dependency. Returns are calculated using the adjusted trade-to-trade approach. Serious thin-trading was observed on all markets, and more so for Namibia and Botswana, the two markets with significant dual-listed stocks on the JSE. In many of the markets studied, a significant number of stocks rejected the random walk. Only three markets, Namibia, Kenya and Zimbabwe, were found to be relatively weak form efficient. The result for Namibia is attributed to its correlation with the JSE. Kenya and Zimbabwe are much older than most of the other markets studied. All the stocks in the Mauritian sample rejected the random walk at the 1% level of significance using the runs test and is thus said to be weak form inefficient. The same conclusion is reached for Ghana, the BRVM, Egypt and Botswana. Thus the possibility of profiting by trading on historical prices could not be entirely ruled out.

Suggested Citation

  • Mlambo, Chipo & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2007. "The efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from ten African stock markets," MPRA Paper 25968, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25968
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Graham Smith & Aneta Dyakova, 2014. "African Stock Markets: Efficiency and Relative Predictability," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 258-275, June.
    2. Umara Noreen & Attayah Shafique & Usman Ayub & Syed Kashif Saeed, 2022. "Does the Adaptive Market Hypothesis Reconcile the Behavioral Finance and the Efficient Market Hypothesis?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Godfrey Akileng & Abbot Anthony Ogwang & Charles Ssendyona, 2018. "Determinants of performance of securities exchanges in East Africa," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(3), pages 1-3.
    4. Andrew Phiri, 2015. "Efficient Market Hypothesis in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 13(4 (Winter), pages 369-387.
    5. Charles O. Manasseh & Nnah M. Iroha & Kingsley I. Okere & Ifeoma C. Nwakoby & Ogochukwu C. Okanya & Nnenna Nwonye & Onuselogu Odidi & Oliver I. Inyiama, 2022. "Application of Markov chain to share price movement in Nigeria (1985–2019)," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Saint Kuttu & Godfred A. Bokpin, 2017. "Feedback Trading and Autocorrelation Patterns in Sub-Saharan African Equity Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(1), pages 213-225, January.
    7. Kuttu, Saint, 2018. "Modelling long memory in volatility in sub-Saharan African equity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 176-185.
    8. Saliha Theiri & Abdessatar Ati, 2020. "Weak Form of Efficiency Hypotheses: Empirical Modeling With Box ¨CPierce, ADF and ARCH Tests," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(5), pages 137-149, October.
    9. Sinazo Guduza & Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from the JSE equity and bond markets," Working Papers 1718, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Dec 2017.
    10. Senarathne Chamil W., 2020. "Are Religious Believers Irrational: A Direct Test from an Efficient Market Hypothesis," Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 35-53, March.
    11. Eymen Errais & Dhikra Bahri, 2016. "Is Standard Deviation a Good Measure of Volatility? the Case of African Markets with Price Limits," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(1), pages 145-165, May.
    12. Jean-François Casta & Alioune Badara Mbengue, 2016. "De la pertinence informationnelle des chiffres comptables publiés par les sociétés cotées sur les Bourses d'Afrique de l'Ouest (B.R.V.M et Ghana Stock Exchange)," Post-Print hal-01902539, HAL.
    13. Tarek Ibrahim Eldomiaty & Marwa Anwar & Nebal Magdy & Mohamed Nabil Hakam, 2020. "Robust examination of political structural breaks and abnormal stock returns in Egypt," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, December.
    14. Nathaniel Gbenro & Richard Kouamé Moussa, 2019. "Asymmetric Mean Reversion in Low Liquid Markets: Evidence from BRVM," Post-Print hal-02059799, HAL.
    15. Nathaniel Gbenro & Richard Kouamé Moussa, 2019. "Asymmetric Mean Reversion in Low Liquid Markets: Evidence from BRVM," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, March.
    16. Karen Balladares & José Pedro Ramos-Requena & Juan Evangelista Trinidad-Segovia & Miguel Angel Sánchez-Granero, 2021. "Statistical Arbitrage in Emerging Markets: A Global Test of Efficiency," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, January.
    17. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Correia, José, 2018. "Non-linear dependencies in African stock markets: Was subprime crisis an important factor?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 680-687.
    18. Błażej Prusak & Marcin Potrykus, 2021. "Short-Term Price Reaction to Filing for Bankruptcy and Restructuring Proceedings—The Case of Poland," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, March.
    19. Pourakin Djarius Dieudonné BAMA, 2020. "Portfolio Management on an Emerging Market: Dynamic Strategy or Passive Strategy?," Business and Management Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 1526-1526, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market efficiency; African stock markets; random walk; thin trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • N27 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Africa; Oceania
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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