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Efficient Market Hypothesis in European Stock Markets

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  • Maria Rosa Borges

Abstract

This paper reports the results of tests on the weak-form market efficiency applied to stock market indexes of France, Germany, UK, Greece, Portugal and Spain, from January 1993 to December 2007. We use a serial correlation test, a runs test, an augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the multiple variance ratio test proposed by Lo and MacKinlay (1988) for the hypothesis that the stock market index follows a random walk. The tests are performed using daily and monthly data for the whole period and for the period of the last five years, i.e., 2003 to 2007. Overall, we find convincing evidence that monthly prices and returns follow random walks in all six countries. Daily returns are not normally distributed, because they are negatively skewed and leptokurtic. France, Germany, UK and Spain meet most of the criteria for a random walk behavior with daily data, but that hypothesis is rejected for Greece and Portugal, due to serial positive correlation. However, the empirical tests show that these two countries have also been approaching a random walk behavior after 2003.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2008/20.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp202008

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Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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  1. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  2. José Carlos Dias & Luís Lopes & Vitor Martins & José Manuel Benzinho, 2004. "Efficiency tests in the Iberian stock markets," Finance 0406001, EconWPA.
  3. Graham Smith & Keith Jefferis & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2002. "African stock markets: multiple variance ratio tests of random walks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 475-484.
  4. Graham Smith & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2003. "Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 290-300.
  5. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  6. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-76, April.
  7. Nicolaas Groenewold & Mohamed Ariff, 1998. "The Effects of De-Regulation on Share-Market Efficiency in the Asia-Pacific," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 23-47.
  8. Abraham Abraham, 2002. "Testing the Random Walk Behavior and Efficiency of the Gulf Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 469-480, 08.
  9. M. Magnusson & B. Wydick, 2002. "How Efficient are Africa's Emerging Stock Markets?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 141-156.
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Cited by:
  1. Ciumas Cristina & Chis Diana-Maria & Botos Horia Mircea, 2012. "Global Financial Crisis And Unit-Linked Insurance Markets Efficiency: Empirical Evidence From Central And Eastern European Countries," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 443-448, December.
  2. Ahmet Sensoy & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2013. "How Much Random Does European Union Walk? A Time-Varying Long Memory Analysis," Working Paper 12, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul.
  3. Akber, Ushna & Muhammad, Nabeel, 2013. "Is Pakistan Stock Market moving towards Weak-form efficiency? Evidence from the Karachi Stock Exchange and the Random Walk Nature of free-float of shares of KSE 30 Index," MPRA Paper 49128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ana Rita Gonzaga & Helder Sebastião, 2011. "As Ações Portuguesas Seguem um Random Walk? Implicações para a Eficiência de Mercado e para a Definição de Estratégias de Transação," GEMF Working Papers 2012-02, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  5. Rico Belda, Paz, 2013. "No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35/Nonlinearity and Asymmetry in the Generator Process of Ibex35 Index," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 555-576, Septiembr.
  6. Urquhart, Andrew & Hudson, Robert, 2013. "Efficient or adaptive markets? Evidence from major stock markets using very long run historic data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 130-142.
  7. Lim Kai Jie, Shawn & Chadha, Pavneet & Lau, Joshua & Potdar, Nishad, 2012. "Is the Mongolian Equity Market Efficient? Empirical Evidence from Tests of Weak-Form Efficiency," MPRA Paper 41834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Mensah, Justice T. & Pomaa-Berko, Maame & Adom, Philip Kofi, 2012. "Does Automation Improve Stock Market Efficiency? Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 43642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Graham Smith, 2012. "The changing and relative efficiency of European emerging stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 689-708, September.

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