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Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets

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  • Graham Smith
  • Hyun-Jung Ryoo
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    Abstract

    The hypothesis that stock market price indices follow a random walk is tested for five European emerging markets, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal and Turkey, using the multiple variance ratio test. In four of the markets, the random walk hypothesis is rejected because of autocorrelation in returns. For the Istanbul market, which had markedly higher turnover than the other markets in the 1990s, the stock price index follows a random walk. This contrasts with the results of earlier research, carried out for periods of lower turnover, which rejected the random walk hypothesis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 9 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 290-300

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:9:y:2003:i:3:p:290-300

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    Related research

    Keywords: emerging markets; random walk hypothesis; stock prices; variance ratio tests;

    References

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    1. Hochberg, Yosef, 1974. "Some generalizations of the T-method in simultaneous inference," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 224-234, June.
    2. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Peter Huber, 1997. "Stock market returns in thin markets: evidence from the Vienna Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 493-498.
    4. E. Dockery & M. G. Kavussanos, 1996. "Testing the efficient market hypothesis using panel data, with application to the Athens stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 121-123.
    5. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    6. Urrutia, Jorge L, 1995. "Tests of Random Walk and Market Efficiency for Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(3), pages 299-309, Fall.
    7. Ayadi, O. Felix & Pyun, C. S., 1994. "An application of variance ratio test to the Korean securities market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 643-658, September.
    8. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Krzysztof Kompa & Aleksandra Matuszewska-Janica, 2009. "Efficiency of the Warsaw Stock Exchange: Analysis of Selected Properties," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 59-70, February.
    2. A. Sensoy & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2013. "How much random does European Union walk? A time-varying long memory analysis," Working Papers Series 342, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Maria Rosa Borges, 2011. "Random walk tests for the Lisbon stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 631-639.
    4. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    5. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Maria Rosa Borges, 2008. "Efficient Market Hypothesis in European Stock Markets," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/20, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
    7. Alexandru Todea & Dorina Lazar, 2012. "Global Crisis and Relative Efficiency: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(1), pages 045-053, June.
    8. Abdelbari El Khamlichi & Kabir Sarkar Humayun & Mohamed Arouri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Are Islamic equity indices more efficient than their conventional counterparts ? Evidence from major global index families," Working Papers 2014-091, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    9. Dobija, Dorota & Klimczak, Karol Marek, 2010. "Development of accounting in Poland: Market efficiency and the value relevance of reported earnings," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 356-374, September.
    10. Ana Rita Gonzaga & Helder Sebastião, 2011. "As Ações Portuguesas Seguem um Random Walk? Implicações para a Eficiência de Mercado e para a Definição de Estratégias de Transação," GEMF Working Papers 2012-02, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
    11. Abullah M. Noman & Minhaz U. Ahmed, 2008. "Efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in South Asian Countries," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-18, American International University-Bangladesh, Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Jun 2008.
    12. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darne, 2009. "Variance ratio tests of random walk: An overview," Post-Print hal-00771078, HAL.

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