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A New Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Emerging Markets: A Revisit

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  • Osamah M. Al-Khazali
  • David K. Ding
  • Chong Soo Pyun
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    Abstract

    Using a nonparametric variance ratio (VR) test, we revisit the empirical validity of the random walk hypothesis in eight emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). After correcting for measurement biases caused by thin and infrequent trading prevalent in nascent and small stock markets, we cannot reject the random walk hypothesis for the MENA markets. We conclude that a nonparametric VR test is appropriate for emerging stock markets, and argue that our findings can reconcile previously contradictory results regarding the efficiency of MENA markets. Copyright 2007, The Eastern Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Eastern Finance Association in its journal Financial Review.

    Volume (Year): 42 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2 (05)
    Pages: 303-317

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:42:y:2007:i:2:p:303-317

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    Web page: http://www.easternfinance.org/
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    Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0732-8516

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    Cited by:
    1. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
    2. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2010. "Some Further Evidence on the Behaviour of Stock Returns in India," MPRA Paper 48518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:ltr:wpaper:2009.01 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Abul Shamsuddin & Jae H Kim, 2009. "Short-Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity Markets," Working Papers 2009.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    5. Osamah AlKhazali, 2011. "Does infrequent trading make a difference on stock market efficiency?: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 96-110, June.
    6. Jian Zhang & Lee W. Sanning & Sherrill Shaffer, 2010. "Market Efficiency Test in the VIX Futures Market," CAMA Working Papers 2010-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Masih, Mansur & Alzahrani, Mohammed & Al-Titi, Omar, 2010. "Systematic risk and time scales: New evidence from an application of wavelet approach to the emerging Gulf stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 10-18, January.
    8. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2012. "Variance ratios, structural breaks and nonrandom walk behaviour in the Indian stock returns," MPRA Paper 48710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chiang, Shu-Mei & Lee, Yen-Hsien & Su, Hsin-Mei & Tzou, Yi-Pin, 2010. "Efficiency tests of foreign exchange markets for four Asian Countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 284-294, September.
    10. Michael Batuo Enowbi & Francesco Guidi & Kupukile Mlambo, 2010. "Testing the Weak-form Market Efficiency and the Day of the Week Effects of some African Countries," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 12(Conferenc), pages 1-26.
    11. Bley, Jorg, 2011. "Are GCC stock markets predictable?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 217-237, September.
    12. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Hinich, Melvin J., 2008. "Nonlinear serial dependence and the weak-form efficiency of Asian emerging stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 527-544, December.
    13. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kuttu, Saint, 2014. "Return and volatility dynamics among four African equity markets: A multivariate VAR-EGARCH analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 56-69.
    15. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
    16. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darne, 2009. "Variance ratio tests of random walk: An overview," Post-Print hal-00771078, HAL.
    17. de, Vries Frans & Montagnoli, Alberto, 2009. "Carbon trading thickness and market efficiency: A non-parametric test," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2009-22, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    18. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2011. "An empirical analysis on the efficiency of the microfinance investment market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2725-2735.

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