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Incomplete Information Games With Multiple Priors

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  • ATSUSHI KAJII
  • TAKASHI UI

Abstract

We present a model of incomplete information games with sets of priors. Upon arrival of private information, each player "updates" by the Bayes rule each of priors in this set to construct the set of posteriors consistent with the arrived piece of information. Then the player uses a possibly proper subset of this set of posteriors to form beliefs about the opponents' strategic choices. And finally the player evaluates his actions by the most pessimistic posterior beliefs `a la Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989). So each player's preferences may exhibit non-linearity in probabilities which can be interpreted as the player's aversion to ambiguity or uncertainty. In this setup, we define a couple of equilibrium concepts, establish existence results for them, and demonstrate by examples how players' views on uncertainty about the environment affect the strategic outcomes.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Japanese Economic Association in its journal Japanese Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 56 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 332-351

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecrev:v:56:y:2005:i:3:p:332-351

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References

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  1. David Schmeidler, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7662, David K. Levine.
  2. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2001.
  3. Dow James & Werlang Sergio Ribeiro Da Costa, 1994. "Nash Equilibrium under Knightian Uncertainty: Breaking Down Backward Induction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 305-324, December.
  4. Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February.
  5. Lo, Kin Chung, 2002. "Correlated equilibrium under uncertainty," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 183-209, November.
  6. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  7. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September.
  8. Lo, Kin Chung, 1996. "Equilibrium in Beliefs under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 443-484, November.
  9. Morris, S & Song Shin, H, 1996. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 126, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  10. Kin Chung Lo, 1998. "Sealed bid auctions with uncertainty averse bidders," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20.
  11. Harsanyi, John C., 1994. "Games with Incomplete Information," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1994-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
  12. Mukerji, S. & Song Shin, H., 1997. "Equilibrium Departures From Common Knowledge in Games With Non-Additive Expected Utility," Economics Papers 137, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  13. Robert J Aumann, 1999. "Agreeing to Disagree," Levine's Working Paper Archive 512, David K. Levine.
  14. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February.
  15. Larry G. Epstein & Jiankang Zhang, 1999. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events," Carleton Economic Papers 99-18, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  16. Eichberger, Jurgen & Kelsey, David, 2000. "Non-Additive Beliefs and Strategic Equilibria," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 183-215, February.
  17. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1996. ""Beliefs about Beliefs" without Probabilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1343-73, November.
  18. Atsushi Kajii & Takashi Ui, 2004. "Trade with Heterogeneous Multiple Priors," KIER Working Papers 582, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  19. Crawford, Vincent P., 1990. "Equilibrium without independence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 127-154, February.
  20. Epstein, L.G. & Zhang, J., 1998. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectivity Unambiguous Event," RCER Working Papers 456, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Azrieli, Yaron & Teper, Roee, 2009. "Uncertainty aversion and equilibrium existence in games with incomplete information," MPRA Paper 17617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Gaurab Aryal & Ronald Stauber, 2013. "Trembles in Extensive Games with Ambiguity Averse Players," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-606, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  3. Ronald Stauber, 2013. "A Framework for Robustness to Ambiguity of Higher-Order Beliefs," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-602, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  4. Kajii, Atsushi & Ui, Takashi, 2009. "Interim efficient allocations under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 337-353, January.
  5. Atsushi Kajii & Takashi Ui, 2004. "Trade with Heterogeneous Multiple Priors," KIER Working Papers 582, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  6. De Marco, Giuseppe & Romaniello, Maria, 2013. "A limit theorem for equilibria under ambiguous belief correspondences," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 431-438.
  7. Stauber, Ronald, 2011. "Knightian games and robustness to ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 248-274, January.
  8. : Kostas Koufopoulos & : Roman Kozhan, 2012. "Optimal Insurance under Advserse Selection and Ambiguity Aversion," Working Papers wpn12-07, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.

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