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Trade with Heterogeneous Multiple Priors

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Author Info
Atsushi Kajii (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)
Takashi Ui (Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University)

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Abstract

This paper presents a general framework to understand the possibility of a purely speculative trade under asymmetric information, where the decision making rule of each trader conforms to the multiple priors model (Gibloa and Schmeidler, 1989): the agents are interested in the minimum of the conditional expected value of trade where the minimum is taken over the set of posteriors. In this framework, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition on the sets of posteriors, thus implicitly on the updating rules adopted by the agents, for non-existence of trade such that it is always common knowledge that every agent expects a positive gain.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 582.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:582

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Related research
Keywords: no trade; dynamic consistency; interim efficiency; rectangularity;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Antoine Billot & Alain Chateauneuf & Itzhak Gilboa & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2000. "Sharing Beliefs: Between Agreeing and Disagreeing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 685-694, May.
    Other versions:
  3. Halevy, Yoram, 2004. "The possibility of speculative trade between dynamically consistent agents," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 189-198, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Feinberg, Yossi, 2000. "Characterizing Common Priors in the Form of Posteriors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 127-179, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Atsushi Kajii & Takashi Ui, 2004. "Incomplete Information Games with Multiple Priors," KIER Working Papers 583, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Samet, Dov, 1998. "Common Priors and Separation of Convex Sets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 172-174, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Harsanyi, John C, 1995. "Games with Incomplete Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 291-303, June.
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  10. Grant, Simon & Kajii, Atsushi & Polak, Ben, 2000. "Decomposable Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 169-197, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Morris, Stephen, 1994. "Trade with Heterogeneous Prior Beliefs and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1327-47, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "Recursive multiple-priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-31, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Atsushi Kajii & Takashi Ui, 2004. "Agreeable Bets with Multiple Priors," KIER Working Papers 581, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Ng, Man-Chung, 2003. "On the duality between prior beliefs and trading demands," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 39-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Atsushi Kajii & Takashi Ui, 2004. "Agreeable Bets with Multiple Priors," KIER Working Papers 581, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Atsushi Kajii & Takashi Ui, 2004. "Incomplete Information Games with Multiple Priors," KIER Working Papers 583, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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