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The Monetary Analysis of Hyperinflation and the Appropriate Specification of the Demand for Money

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  • Alexandre Sokic

Abstract

The paper emerges from the failure of the traditional models of hyperinflation with rational expectations or perfect foresight. Using the insights from two standard optimizing monetary settings the paper shows that the possibility of perfect foresight monetary hyperinflation paths depends robustly on the essentiality of money. We show that the popular semilogarithmic form of the demand for money is not appropriate to analyse monetary hyperinflation with perfect foresight. We propose a simple test of money essentiality for the appropriate specification of the demand for money equation in empirical studies of hyperinflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 13 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 142-160

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Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:13:y:2012:i:2:p:142-160

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-87, August.
  2. Buiter, Willem H, 1987. "A Fiscal Theory of Hyperdeflations? Some Surprising Monetarist Arithmetic," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 111-18, March.
  3. Arce, Oscar J., 2009. "Speculative hyperinflations and currency substitution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1808-1823, October.
  4. Evans, Jean Lynne & Yarrow, George Keith, 1981. "Some Implications of Alternative Expectations Hypotheses in the Monetary Analysis of Hyperinflations," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 61-80, March.
  5. Kingston, Geoffrey H., 1982. "The semi-log portfolio balance schedule is tenuous," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 389-399.
  6. Sturzenegger, Federico A, 1994. "Hyperinflation with Currency Substitution: Introducing an Indexed Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 377-95, August.
  7. Sallum, Elvia Mureb & Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda & Cunha, Alexandre Barros da, 2005. "Competitive Equilibrium Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 578, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  8. Evans, J Lynne, 1995. "The Demand for Money: Hyperinflation or High Inflation Traps," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(0), pages 49-56, Suppl..
  9. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 1995. "Recurrent hyperinflations and learning," Economics Working Papers 244, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2001.
  10. Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2000. "A Multivariate I(2) Cointegration Analysis Of German Hyperinflation," Working Papers 0001, University of Crete, Department of Economics, revised 00 Jul 2001.
  11. Bruno, Michael, 1989. "Econometrics and the Design of Economic Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 275-306, March.
  12. Bruno, Michael & Fischer, Stanley, 1990. "Seigniorage, Operating Rules, and the High Inflation Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 353-74, May.
  13. Vázquez Pérez, Jesús & Gutiérrez Huerta, María José, 2002. "Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation Tax Laffer Curve and Modelling the use of Money," DFAEII Working Papers 2002-27, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  14. Vazquez, Jesus, 1998. "How high can inflation get during hyperinflation? A transaction cost demand for money approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 433-451, August.
  15. de Holanda Barbosa, Fernando & Barros da Cunha, Alexandre, 2003. "Inflation tax and money essentiality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 187-195, February.
  16. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2006. "Are hyperinflation paths learnable?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2725-2748, December.
  17. Petrovic, Pavle & Mladenovic, Zorica, 2000. "Money Demand and Exchange Rate Determination under Hyperinflation: Conceptual Issues and Evidence from Yugoslavia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 785-806, November.
  18. Alexandre Sokic, 2010. "Modelling the Transaction Role of Money and the Essentiality of Money in an Explosive Hyperinflation Context," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 166(3), pages 387-396, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Sokic, Alexandre & FABRIS, Nikola, 2013. "Euroization and cyclical stabilization in Montenegro: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 46537, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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