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A Fiscal Theory of Hyperdeflations? Some Surprising Monetarist Arithmetic

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Author Info
Buiter, Willem H

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Abstract

For the range of "small" government deficits for which two stationary solutions exist, an increase in the deficit reduces the long-run rate of inflation if the locally-stable (high inflation) stationary equilibrium is chosen, increases it if the locally- unstable (low inflation) equilibrium is chosen. Explosive, unstable behavior always involves a steadily increasing negative rate of inflation, i.e. a "hyperdeflation." There always exist deficits so large that stationary solutions do not exist. Behavior then is unstable and explosive: hyperinflations are ruled out and hyperdeflations must result. Empirical studies of hyperinflations should no longer use the rational-expectations version of the Sargent-Wallace model as a theoretical backdrop. Copyright 1987 by Royal Economic Society.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 39 (1987)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 111-18
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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:39:y:1987:i:1:p:111-18

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  1. Buiter, Willem H., 2000. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, Again," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alexandre Sokic, 2007. "Monetary hyperinflations and money essentiality," Working Papers of BETA 2007-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
  3. Willem H. Buiter, 1999. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," NBER Working Papers 7302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Mª Jose Gutierrez & Jesús Vazquez, 2003. "Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation Tax Laffer Curve and Modelling the use of Money," DFAEII Working Papers 200227, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
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