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Commodity Prices and the Dynamics of Inflation in Commodity‐Exporting Nations: Evidence from Australia and Canada

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  • HARRY BLOCH
  • A. MICHAEL DOCKERY
  • DAVID SAPSFORD

Abstract

A commodity‐price boom is under way. What does this boom mean for inflation in countries with substantial net commodity exports? The answer depends on movements in commodity prices, changes in foreign exchange rates and the determinants of domestic price inflation. We estimate equations to provide indications of the strength of each of these forces for both Australia and Canada. The results show that world commodity prices move pro‐cyclically with world industrial production and that rates of change in commodity prices are directly related to domestic inflation in both countries. However, there is an offsetting impact of exchange‐rate changes, which is strong enough in the case of Australia, but not Canada, to substantially eliminate the inflationary impact of a commodity‐price boom.

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  • Harry Bloch & A. Michael Dockery & David Sapsford, 2006. "Commodity Prices and the Dynamics of Inflation in Commodity‐Exporting Nations: Evidence from Australia and Canada," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 97-109, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:82:y:2006:i:s1:p:s97-s109
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2006.00336.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
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    7. R.G. Gregory, 1976. "Some Implications Of The Growth Of The Mineral Sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(2), pages 71-91, August.
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    9. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-947, October.
    10. Harry Bloch & Michael Olive, 1999. "Cyclical and Competitive Influences on Pricing in Australian Manufacturing," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(3), pages 268-279, September.
    11. Harry Bloch, 1974. "Prices, Costs, and Profits in Canadian Manufacturing: The Influence of Tariffs and Concentration," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 7(4), pages 594-610, November.
    12. Harry Bloch & David Sapsford, 1991. "Postwar Movements in Prices of Primary Products and Manufactured Goods," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 249-266, December.
    13. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Robert G. Gregory, 1990. "Exchange Rate Policy in Advanced Commodity-Exporting Countries: The Case of Australia and New Zealand," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 83, OECD Publishing.
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    15. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    16. Harry Bloch & A. Michael Dockery & C. Wyn Morgan & David Sapsford, 2007. "Growth, Commodity Prices, Inflation And The Distribution Of Income," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 3-44, February.
    17. Harry Bloch & A. Michael Dockery & David Sapsford, 2004. "Commodity prices, wages, and U.S. inflation in the twentieth century," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 523-545.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers, 2015. "Service Oligopolies and Australia's Economy-Wide Performance," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 48(4), pages 333-356, December.
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris A. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu O. & Ohemeng, William, 2020. "The heterogeneous behaviour of the inflation hedging property of cocoa," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Alisson Curátola de Melo, 2013. "Brazil’s Commodity Price Index," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 217-227, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Meher Manzur, 2018. "Exchange rate economics is always and everywhere controversial," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 216-232, January.
    5. Calista Cheung, 2009. "Are Commodity Prices Useful Leading Indicators of Inflation?," Discussion Papers 09-5, Bank of Canada.
    6. Acharya, Ram N. & Gentle, Paul F. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2008. "Examining The Crb Index As An Indicator For U.S. Inflation," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6760, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Nikolaos Sariannidis & Grigoris Giannarakis & Eleni Zafeiriou & Ioannis Billias, 2016. "The Effect of Crude Oil Price Moments on Socially Responsible Firms in Eurozone," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 356-363.
    8. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2013. "Does Monetary Policy Respond to Commodity Price Shocks?," Post-Print hal-01511915, HAL.
    9. Bürgi Bonanomi, Elisabeth & Elsig, Manfred & Espa, Ilaria, 2015. "The Commodity Sector and Related Governance Challenges from a Sustainable Development Perspective: The Example of Switzerland Current Research Gaps," Papers 865, World Trade Institute.
    10. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2014. "The symmetrical and positive relationship between crude oil and nominal exchange rate returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 266-284.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11718 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Rafiq, Shuddhasawtta & Salim, Ruhul & Bloch, Harry, 2009. "Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical investigation in the Thai economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 121-132, September.

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