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How well are long-run commodity price series characterized by trend components?

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  • Paul Newbold

    (University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK)

  • Stephan Pfaffenzeller

    (University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK)

  • Anthony Rayner

    (University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK)

Abstract

Various studies have investigated trends in commodity prices in the context of the Prebisch Singer Hypothesis. This paper applies new evidence on significance tests for trends in differenced and correlated stationary processes, to individual price series. It is also investigated how well trends are suited for price forecasts and what these findings imply for developing countries. Few commodity price series are well characterized by a trend and trends are useful for forecasting in even fewer cases. Commodity specialization is still problematic for LDCs but the main issue is a lack of predictability rather than a secular decline. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Newbold & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Anthony Rayner, 2005. "How well are long-run commodity price series characterized by trend components?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 479-494.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:17:y:2005:i:4:p:479-494
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.1139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Zhang, Yunxiao, 2020. "Investigating properties of commodity price responses to real and nominal shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
    4. Way, Rupert & Lafond, François & Lillo, Fabrizio & Panchenko, Valentyn & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2019. "Wright meets Markowitz: How standard portfolio theory changes when assets are technologies following experience curves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 211-238.
    5. Jean-François Carpantier, 2021. "Commodity Prices in Empirical Research," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 199-227, Springer.
    6. Patricia Gómez-González & Daniel Rees, 2013. "Stochastic Terms of Trade Volatility in Small Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. AfDB AfDB, 2005. "Working Paper 78 - Trade Policy and Performance in Sub - Saharan Africa since the 1980s," Working Paper Series 2212, African Development Bank.
    8. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    9. Ivan Trofimov, 2021. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 41-67, June.
    10. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 87598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. AfDB AfDB, 2005. "Working Paper 78 - Trade Policy and Performance in Sub - Saharan Africa since the 1980s," Working Paper Series 2292, African Development Bank.

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