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Restricted Structural Change And The Unit Root Hypothesis

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  • DAVID H PAPELL
  • RUXANDRA PRODAN

Abstract

"In a classic paper, Nelson and Plosser could not reject the unit root hypothesis in favor of trend stationarity for 13 out of 14 long-term annual macro series. Subsequent studies, allowing for one or two structural changes, have found more rejections with a broken trend stationary alternative. Since these changes are defined to be permanent, the rejections do not provide evidence of trend stationarity. We propose new tests for a unit root in the presence of restricted structural change. Allowing for two offsetting structural changes, we reject the unit root null in favor of restricted trend stationarity for 6 out of 13 series. "("JEL "C22, E32) Copyright 2007 Western Economic Association International.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 45 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 834-853

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:45:y:2007:i:4:p:834-853

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Cited by:
  1. Sobreira, Nuno & Nunesz, Luis C. & Rodriguesz, Paulo M. M., 2012. "Neoclassical, semi-endogenous or endogenous growth theory? Evidence based on new structural change tests," Insper Working Papers wpe_291, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  2. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
  4. Nuno Sobreira & Luís Catela Nunes & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2013. "Characterizing economic growth paths based on new structural change tests," Working Papers w201313, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  5. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2013. "Median-unbiased estimation in DF-GLS regressions and the PPP puzzle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 455-464, February.
  6. Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2011. "Impact of Model Specification Decisions on Unit Root Tests," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 3(2), pages 22-33, September.
  7. Sebastian Fossati, 2013. "Unit root testing with stationary covariates and a structural break in the trend function," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 368-384, 05.
  8. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Jean-François Goux, 2008. "Ruptures épaisses et stationnarité en tendance : le cas du taux de change euro-dollar," Post-Print halshs-00333576, HAL.
  10. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 167-180.

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