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Restricted Structural Change And The Unit Root Hypothesis

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  • DAVID H PAPELL
  • RUXANDRA PRODAN

Abstract

In a classic paper, Nelson and Plosser could not reject the unit root hypothesis in favor of trend stationarity for 13 out of 14 long‐term annual macro series. Subsequent studies, allowing for one or two structural changes, have found more rejections with a broken trend stationary alternative. Since these changes are defined to be permanent, the rejections do not provide evidence of trend stationarity. We propose new tests for a unit root in the presence of restricted structural change. Allowing for two offsetting structural changes, we reject the unit root null in favor of restricted trend stationarity for 6 out of 13 series. (JEL C22, E32)

Suggested Citation

  • David H Papell & Ruxandra Prodan, 2007. "Restricted Structural Change And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 834-853, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:45:y:2007:i:4:p:834-853
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00053.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2011. "Impact of Model Specification Decisions on Unit Root Tests," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 3(2), pages 22-33, September.
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    3. Nuno Sobreira & Luis C. Nunes & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2014. "Characterizing Economic Growth Paths Based On New Structural Change Tests," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 845-861, April.
    4. Jean-François Goux, 2010. "Une approche déterministe du taux de change euro-dollar," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 35-51.
    5. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2013. "Median-unbiased estimation in DF-GLS regressions and the PPP puzzle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 455-464, February.
    6. Jean-François Goux, 2008. "Ruptures épaisses et stationnarité en tendance : le cas du taux de change euro-dollar," Post-Print halshs-00333576, HAL.
    7. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 2015. "Uncertain Effects Of Shocks Vs. Uncertain Unit Root: An Alternative View Of U.S. Real Gdp," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 56(1), pages 117-134, June.
    9. Sobreira, Nuno & Nunesz, Luis C. & Rodriguesz, Paulo M. M., 2012. "Neoclassical, semi-endogenous or endogenous growth theory? Evidence based on new structural change tests," Insper Working Papers wpe_291, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    10. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
    11. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 167-180.
    12. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2014. "Long run time series tests of constant steady-state growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 464-474.
    13. Qishui Chi & Jieyi Huo, 2017. "An Empirical Study on the Stock Price Volatility of Small and Medium Enterprise Board in China," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(2), pages 12-24, December.
    14. Qishui Chi, 2014. "The Impact of Money Supply on the Price: Evidence from China," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(1), pages 75-87, March.
    15. Sebastian Fossati, 2013. "Unit root testing with stationary covariates and a structural break in the trend function," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 368-384, May.
    16. Ghulam Ghouse & Saud Ahmad Khan & Atiq Ur Rehman & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, 2021. "ARDL as an Elixir Approach to Cure for Spurious Regression in Nonstationary Time Series," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-15, November.
    17. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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