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The Great Depression and Output Persistence

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  • Murray, Christian J
  • Nelson, Charles R

Abstract

The persistence of shocks to aggregate output has been the subject of continuing investigation since Nelson and Plosser (1982) suggested they are largely permanent. Recent literature reaches mixed conclusions, largely due to disagreement about how to treat the Great Depression. We estimate output persistence based on a parametric bootstrap of a Markov-switching model for GDP 1870-1994 in which the economy can switch in and out of a turbulent state. Our results suggest that real shocks persist indefinitely if we drop the maintained assumption of homoskedasticity in favor of a Markov-switching representation of the Great Depression.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 34 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1090-98

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:34:y:2002:i:4:p:1090-98

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Vougas, Dimitrios V., 2007. "Is the trend in post-WW II US real GDP uncertain or non-linear?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 348-355, March.
  3. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Exchange rate risk in the US stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-150.
  4. Kühn Stefan, 2010. "A New Keynesian Model with Endogenous Technology Trend," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  5. Chris Murray & Charles Nelson, 1998. "The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP," Working Papers 0074, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  6. Yi-Chi Chen & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: a Bayesian analysis of structural break models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 897-921, December.
  7. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Jaeho, 2013. "The `Pile-up Problem' in Trend-Cycle Decomposition of Real GDP: Classical and Bayesian Perspectives," MPRA Paper 51118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The uncertain unit root in real GNP: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 153-166, March.

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