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Harvest-Time Protein Shocks and Price Adjustment in U.S. Wheat Markets

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  • Goodwin, Barry K.
  • Smith, Vincent H.

Abstract

Dynamic relationships among three classes of wheat are investigated using threshold VAR models that incorporate the effects of protein availability. Changes in the stock of protein are found to generate significant responses in the prices of hard red spring wheat and hard red winter wheat, but not soft red wheat. The responses to identical changes in protein stocks are larger when the magnitudes of deviations of protein stocks from normal levels are large. Shocks to the prices of individual classes of wheat result in complex responses in the prices of the other wheat classes. Notably, however, a shock to the price of hard red winter wheat appears to result in little or no response in the price of hard spring wheat, though importantly, the opposite is not true.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:54544

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Web page: http://waeaonline.org/
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Related research

Keywords: protein; thresholds; vector autoregressions; wheat prices; Crop Production/Industries;

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References

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  1. Marsh, Thomas L., 2003. "Elasticities for U.S. Wheat Food Use by Class," 2003 Conference (47th), February 12-14, 2003, Fremantle, Australia 57920, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  2. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  3. Thomas L. Marsh, 2005. "Economic substitution for US wheat food use by class ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(3), pages 283-301, 09.
  4. Parcell, Joseph L. & Stiegert, Kyle W., 1998. "Competition For U.S. Hard Wheat Characteristics," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
  5. Stiegert, Kyle W. & Blanc, Jean-Pierre, 1997. "Japanese Demand For Wheat Protein Quantity And Quality," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(01), July.
  6. Simon M. Potter, 1993. "A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP," UCLA Economics Working Papers 693, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
  8. Espinosa, Juan Andres & Goodwin, Barry K., 1991. "Hedonic Price Estimation For Kansas Wheat Characteristics," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(01), July.
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