Price and Volatility Transmission in International Wheat Futures
AbstractThis study examines futures price and volatility transmissions among three major wheat production and exporting regions, the United States (US), Canada and the European Union (EU) over the recent six-year study period of 1996 - 2002. The price transmission pattern shows that Canadian prices are much more influenced by the US prices than the US prices are influenced by Canadian prices. The EU is highly self-dependent and may exert some influence on the US prices in the long run but not vice versa. The volatility transmission pattern, however, shows that volatility is transmitted from Canada and the EU to the US but not vice versa. The volatility is also transmitted from the EU to Canada but not vice versa. Overall, there is no distinctive leadership role in international wheat markets, with all three markets exhibiting features of price leadership to some extent.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Society for AEF in its journal Annals of Economics and Finance.
Volume (Year): 4 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Price and volatility transmission; Generalized forecast error variance decomposition; Generalized impulse response analysis; Multivariate GARCH;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schmitz, Troy G. & Gray, Richard S., 2000. "State Trading Enterprises And Revenue Gains From Market Power: The Case Of Barley Marketing And The Canadian Wheat Board," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(02), December.
- Maria Kasch-Haroutounian & Simon Price, 2001. "Volatility in the transition markets of Central Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 93-105.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Zanias, George P., 1999. "Seasonality and spatial integration in agricultural (product) markets," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 253-262, May.
- Samarendu Mohanty & E. Wesley F. Peterson & Nancy Cottrell Kruse, 1995. "Price Asymmetry in the International Wheat Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 43(3), pages 355-366, November.
- Aris Protopapadakis & Hans R. Stoll, .
"Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
17-82, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- G. Geoffrey Booth & Paul Brockman & Yiuman Tse, 1998. "The relationship between US and Canadian wheat futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 73-80.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- David A Bessler & Jian Yang & Metha Wongcharupan, 2003. "Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 1-33.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998.
"Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models,"
Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
- Samarendu Mohanty & E. Wesley F. Peterson & Damell B. Smith, 1996. "Relationships between U.S. and Canadian Wheat Prices: Cointegration and Error Correction Approach," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 44(3), pages 265-276, November.
- Ben Shepherd, 2005. "Market Power in International Commodity Processing Chains: Preliminary Results from the Coffee Market," International Trade 0511013, EconWPA.
- Hernandez, Manuel A. & Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., .
"How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets,"
2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil
124979, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Manuel Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo Trupkin, 2011. "How far do shocks move across borders?Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 1109, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
- Manuel A. Hernández & Raúl Ibarra-Ramírez & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2011. "How Far Do Shocks Move Across Borders? Examining Volatility Transmission in Major Agricultural Futures Markets," Working Papers 2011-15, Banco de México.
- Hernandez, Manuel A. & Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2012. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122511, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Hernandez, Manuel A. & Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2011. "How far do shocks move across borders?: Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," IFPRI discussion papers 1109, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Kong, Minji & Han, Doo Bong & Nayga, Rodolfo M., Jr., 2012. "Interrelationship and Volatility Transmission between Grain and Oil Prices," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124377, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- van Binh T. & Dumont M., 2008. "A Fishing Expedition in the Mekong Delta: Market Volatility and Price Substitutes for Vietnamese Fresh Water Fish," Working Papers 2008002, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
- Ge, Yuanlong & Wang, H. Holly & Ahn, Sung K., 2008. "Implication of Cotton Price Behavior on Market Integration," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37623, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Qiang Gao).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.