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Income Impacts of Climate Change: Irrigated Farming in the Mediterranean and Expected Changes in Probability of Favorable and Adverse Weather Conditions

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  • Dono, Gabriele
  • Cortignani, Raffaele
  • Giraldo, Luca
  • Pasqui, Massimiliano
  • Roggero, Pier Pao

Abstract

EU rural development policy (RDP) regulation 1305/2013 aims to protect farmers’ incomes from ongoing change of climate variability (CCV), and the increase in frequency of adverse climatic events. An income stabilization tool (IST) is provided to compensate drastic drops in income, including those caused by climatic events. The present study examines some aspect of its application focussing on Mediterranean irrigation area where frequent water shortages may generate significant income reductions in the current climate conditions, and may be further exacerbated by climate change. This enhanced loss of income in the future would occur due to a change in climate variability. This change would appreciably reduce the probability of weather conditions that are favourable for irrigation, but would not significantly increase either the probability of unfavourable weather conditions or the magnitude of their impact. As the IST and other insurance tools that protect against adversity and catastrophic events are only activated under extreme conditions, farmers may not consider them to be suitable in dealing with the new climate regime. This would leave a portion of the financial resources allocated by the RDP unused, resulting in less support for climate change adaptation. Mit der Verordnung 1305/2013 zielt die EU-Politik zur Entwicklung des ländlichen Raums (RDP ) darauf ab, die Einkommen der Landwirte vor den Auswirkungen von Änderungen in der Klimavariabilität (CCV) und häufiger werdenden widrigen Witterungsbedingungen zu schützen. Das Instrument der Einkommensstabilisierung (IST) ist vorgesehen, um drastische Rückgänge der Einkommen auszugleichen, die unter anderem durch Klimaereignisse verursacht werden. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht einige Aspekte der Anwendung dieses Instruments. Das Augenmerk ist auf den mediterranen Bereich gerichtet, wo häufiger Wassermangel unter aktuellen Bedingungen, der durch den Klimawandel noch verschärft werden kann, zu erheblichen Einkommenseinbußen führen kann. Stärkere Klimavariabilität dürfte größere Einkommenseinbußen auslösen. Eine deutliche Verringerung der Wahrscheinlichkeit von günstigen Witterungsbedingungen für die Bewässerung ist abzusehen. Eine höhere Wahrscheinlichkeit von ungünstigeren Bedingungen für die Bewässerung und deren Folgen sind jedoch nicht zu erwarten. IST und Versicherungsinstrumente, die gegen Schäden und Katastrophen schützen sollen, werden nur unter extremen Bedingungen zum Einsatz kommen. Sie dürften daher von Landwirten als ungeeignet eingestuft werden, um die Folgen der Klimaänderung zu bewältigen. Ein Teil RDP-Mittel könnte somit ungenutzt bleiben. Dies könnte eine geringere Unterstützung zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel zur Folge haben.

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  • Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Giraldo, Luca & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, Pier Pao, 2014. "Income Impacts of Climate Change: Irrigated Farming in the Mediterranean and Expected Changes in Probability of Favorable and Adverse Weather Conditions," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 63(03), pages 1-10, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:253158
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.253158
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    2. Nguyen, Thi Phuoc Lai & Seddaiu, Giovanna & Virdis, Salvatore Gonario Pasquale & Tidore, Camillo & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, Pier Paolo, 2016. "Perceiving to learn or learning to perceive? Understanding farmers' perceptions and adaptation to climate uncertainties," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 205-216.

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