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Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation

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  • Connor, Jeff
  • Schwabe, Kurt
  • King, Darran
  • Kaczan, David
  • Kirby, Mac

Abstract

This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia. A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and severe climate change scenarios involving 1, 2 and 4 C warming, and predict 13, 38 and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two-stage approach that simultaneously estimates short and long-run adjustments. The model accounts for a range of adaptive responses including: deficit irrigation, temporarily following of some areas, permanently reducing the irrigated area and changing the mix of crops. The results suggest that relatively low cost adaptation strategies are available for a moderate reduction in water availability and thus costs of such a reduction are likely to be relatively small. In more severe climate change scenarios greater costs are estimated. Adaptations predicted include a reduction in total area irrigated and investments in efficient irrigation. A shift away from perennial to annual crops is also predicted as the latter can be managed more profitably when water allocations in some years are very low.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/161976
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 53 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:161976

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Related research

Keywords: climate change; economics; irrigation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

References

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  1. Knapp, Keith C. & Baerenklau, Kenneth A., 2006. "Ground Water Quantity and Quality Management: Agricultural Production and Aquifer Salinization over Long Time Scales," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(03), December.
  2. Rosenzweig, Cynthia & Phillips, Jennifer & Goldberg, Richard & Carroll, John & Hodges, Tom, 1996. "Potential impacts of climate change on citrus and potato production in the US," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 455-479, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mukherjee, Monobina & Schwabe, Kurt A., 2012. "Valuing Access To Multiple Water Supply Sources In Irrigated Agriculture With A Hedonic Pricing Model," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124604, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Doro, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Roggero, PierPaolo & Giraldo, Luca & Severini, Simone, 2011. "Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigated Farming Systems," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114436, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Giraldo, Luca & Doro, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, PierPaolo, 2012. "Evaluating productive and economic impacts of climate change variability on the farm sector of an irrigated Mediterranean area," 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy 126099, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Gabriele Dono & Raffaele Cortignani & Luca Doro & Luca Giraldo & Luigi Ledda & Massimiliano Pasqui & Pier Roggero, 2013. "An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Changing Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Profitability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Catchment," Water Resources Management, Springer, vol. 27(10), pages 3607-3622, August.
  5. Zhou, Li & Turvey, Calum G., 2014. "Climate change, adaptation and China's grain production," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-89.
  6. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Doro, Luca & Giraldo, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, Pier Paolo, 2013. "Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-12.
  7. Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Cockfield, Geoff & White, Neil & Jakeman, Guy, 2014. "Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 34-42.
  8. J. Kirby & Md. Mainuddin & M. Ahmad & L. Gao, 2013. "Simplified Monthly Hydrology and Irrigation Water Use Model to Explore Sustainable Water Management Options in the Murray-Darling Basin," Water Resources Management, Springer, vol. 27(11), pages 4083-4097, September.

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