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Evaluating productive and economic impacts of climate change variability on the farm sector of an irrigated Mediterranean area

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  • Dono, Gabriele
  • Cortignani, Raffaele
  • Giraldo, Luca
  • Doro, Luca
  • Ledda, Luigi
  • Pasqui, Massimiliano
  • Roggero, PierPaolo

Abstract

Climate changes in agriculture act on various climate variables (precipitation, temperature, etc..) at different times of crop cycles. Many physical and technical relationships have to be represented even when analyzing a limited aspect of farm management. This work employs the net evapotranspiration (ETn) estimated with the EPIC model, as a synthetic index of the physical factors that the farmer considers in decisions on irrigation. The probability distribution of ETn is inserted into a territorial model of DSP that represents farm choices in conditions of uncertainty about water availability and irrigation requirements of crops. Recent trends of ETn suggest that the probability distribution of this variable may appreciably change in the near future. Also, water availability may become more variable due to changed rainfall. These modifications amplify uncertainty of management and, consequently, costs incurred by the farm typologies of the study area, which in many cases suffer an appreciable drop in income.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy with number 126099.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa126:126099

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Keywords: Discrete Stochastic Programming model; EPIC; climate change; Net Evapotranspiration; water availability; irrigation needs; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54;

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  1. Connor, Jeff & Schwabe, Kurt & King, Darran & Kaczan, David & Kirby, Mac, 2009. "Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(3), September.
  2. Jeff Connor & Kurt Schwabe & Darran King & David Kaczan & Mac Kirby, 2009. "Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(3), pages 437-456, 07.
  3. Javier Calatrava & Alberto Garrido, 2005. "Modelling water markets under uncertain water supply," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 119-142, June.
  4. Mosnier, Claire & Agabriel, Jacques & Lherm, Michel & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2011. "On-farm weather risk management in suckler cow farms: A recursive discrete stochastic programming approach," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114645, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Mosnier, C. & Agabriel, J. & Lherm, M. & Reynaud, A., 2009. "A dynamic bio-economic model to simulate optimal adjustments of suckler cow farm management to production and market shocks in France," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 102(1-3), pages 77-88, October.
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