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Distinguishing Informational Cascades from Herd Behavior in the Laboratory

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Boğaçhan Çelen
Shachar Kariv

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Abstract

This paper reports an experimental test of how individuals learn from the behavior of others. By using techniques only available in the laboratory, we elicit subjects' beliefs. This allows us to distinguish informational cascades from herd behavior. By adding a setup with continuous signal and discrete action, we enrich the ball-andurn observational learning experiments paradigm of Lisa R. Anderson and Charles Holt (1997). We attempt to understand subjects' behavior by estimating a model that allows for the possibility of errors in earlier decisions.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/0002828041464461
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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=AER&volume=94&issue=3&article=5&issue_date=June2004
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 94 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 484-498
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:94:y:2004:i:3:p:484-498

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Welch, Ivo, 1992. " Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gale, Douglas, 1996. "What have we learned from social learning?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 617-628, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Angela A. Hung & Charles R. Plott, 2001. "Information Cascades: Replication and an Extension to Majority Rule and Conformity-Rewarding Institutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1508-1520, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Celen, Bogachan & Kariv, Shachar, 2004. "Observational learning under imperfect information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 72-86, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lones Smith & Peter Sorensen, 2000. "Pathological Outcomes of Observational Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 371-398, March.
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  9. Kennedy, Robert E, 2002. "Strategy Fads and Competitive Convergence: An Empirical Test for Herd Behavior in Prime-Time Television Programming," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 57-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
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  11. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1994. "A Theory of Conformity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(5), pages 841-77, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Dorothea K¸bler & Georg Weizs”cker, 2004. "Limited Depth of Reasoning and Failure of Cascade Formation in the Laboratory," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 425-441, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. D. Kübler & G. Weizsäcker, . "Limited depth of reasoning and failure of cascade formation in the laboratory," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-3, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  14. Anderson, Lisa R & Holt, Charles A, 1996. "Classroom Games: Information Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 187-93, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Francesco Feri & Miguel A. Meléndez-Jiménez & Giovanni Ponti & Fernando Vega Redondo, 2008. "Error Cascades in Observational Learning: An Experiment on the Chinos Game," Working Papers 2008-21, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Daron Acemoglu & Munther A. Dahleh & Ilan Lobel & Asuman Ozdaglar, 2008. "Bayesian Learning in Social Networks," NBER Working Papers 14040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Boðaçhan Çelen & Shachar Kariv & Andrew Schotter, 2005. "Words Speak Louder than Actions and Improve Welfare: An Experimental Test of Advice and Social Learning," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000250, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Shachar Kariv & Syngjoo Choi & Douglas Gale, 2007. "Social Learning in Networks: A Quantal Response Equilibrium Analysis of Experimental Data," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000107, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. repec:bep:thetop:v:4:y:2004:i:1:p:1163-1163 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Shunichiro Sasaki & Toshiji Kawagoe, 2006. "Can You Believe Your Neighbors' Behaviors?," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hongbin Cai & Yuyu Chen & Hanming Fang, 2007. "Observational Learning: Evidence from a Randomized Natural Field Experiment," NBER Working Papers 13516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Antonio Guarino & Marco Cipriani, 2008. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," IMF Working Papers 08/141, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Shunichiro Sasaki, 2005. "Signal Qualities, Order of Decisions, and Informational Cascades: Experimental Evidence," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(34), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jacob K. Goeree & Thomas R. Palfrey & Brian W. Rogers & Richard D. McKelvey, 2006. "Self-Correcting Information Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000211, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Shachar Kariv, 2005. "Overconfidence and Informational Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000406, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jonathan E. Alevy & Michael S. Haigh & John List, 2006. "Information Cascades: Evidence from An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," NBER Working Papers 12767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Matthew O. Jackson & Benjamin Golub, 2007. "Naïve Learning in Social Networks: Convergence, Influence and Wisdom of Crowds," Working Papers 2007.64, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bisière, Christophe & Décamps, Jean-Paul & Lovo, Stefano, 2009. "Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment," IDEI Working Papers 552, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  15. Christoph Brunner & Jacob K. Goeree, 2009. "Wise crowds or wise minorities?," IEW - Working Papers iewwp439, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  16. Boðaçhan Çelen & Shachar Kariv & Andrew Schotter, 2006. "An Experimental Test of Advice and Social Learning," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000272, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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