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The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Mark Musumba & Naureen Fatema & Shahriar Kibriya, 2021. "Prevention Is Better Than Cure: Machine Learning Approach to Conflict Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-18, July.
  2. Marup Hossain & Conner Mullally, 2022. "Using evaluation data to predict loan performance among poor borrowers: The case of BRAC’s asset transfer and microcredit programmes," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(3), May.
  3. Galdo Virgilio & Acevedo Gladys Lopez & Rama Martin, 2021. "Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
  4. Daisuke Miyakawa & Kohei Shintani, 2020. "Disagreement between Human and Machine Predictions," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  5. Hannes Mueller & Christopher Rauh, 2022. "The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2440-2467.
  6. Dominic Rohner, 2025. "Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 12035, CESifo.
  7. Nicolas Gatti & Kathy Baylis & Benjamin Crost, 2021. "Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 211-231, January.
  8. Juan David Gelvez, 2025. "Predicting police and military violence: evidence from Colombia and Mexico using machine learning models," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
  9. Racek, Daniel & Thurner, Paul W. & Davidson, Brittany I. & Zhu, Xiao Xiang & Kauermann, Göran, 2024. "Conflict forecasting using remote sensing data: An application to the Syrian civil war," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 373-391.
  10. Arslan, Aslihan & Cavatassi, Romina & Hossain, Marup, "undated". "Research Series 69: Structural and rural transformation and food systems: a quantitative synthesis for LMICs," IFAD Research Series 320669, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
  11. Adhvaryu, Achyuta & Fenske, James & Khanna, Gaurav & Nyshadham, Anant, 2021. "Resources, conflict, and economic development in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  12. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  13. Yujun Zhou & Erin Lentz & Hope Michelson & Chungmann Kim & Kathy Baylis, 2022. "Machine learning for food security: Principles for transparency and usability," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 893-910, June.
  14. Tapsoba, Augustin, 2022. "Conflict Prediction using Kernel Density Estimation," TSE Working Papers 22-1295, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  15. Daisuke Miyakawa & Kohei Shintani, 2022. "Disagreement between human and machine predictions," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Machine learning in central banking, volume 57, Bank for International Settlements.
  16. Mueller, H. & Rauh, C. & Seimon, B., 2024. "Introducing a Global Dataset on Conflict Forecasts and News Topics," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2402, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  17. Robert A. Blair & Nicholas Sambanis, 2020. "Forecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Structure in an Age of “Big Data†and Machine Learning," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(10), pages 1885-1915, November.
  18. Paolo Campana. Andrea Giovannetti & Paolo Pin & Roberto Rozzi, 2025. "Criminal Property Rights Suppress Violence in Urban Drug Markets: Theory and Evidence from Merseyside, U.K," Papers 2508.02561, arXiv.org.
  19. Racek, Daniel & Thurner, Paul & Kauermann, Goeran, 2024. "Integrating Spatio-temporal Diffusion into Statistical Forecasting Models of Armed Conflict via Non-parametric Smoothing," OSF Preprints q59dr, Center for Open Science.
  20. Yu-Chin Hsu & Robert P. Lieli, 2021. "Inference for ROC Curves Based on Estimated Predictive Indices," Papers 2112.01772, arXiv.org.
  21. Sidney Michelini & Barbora Šedová & Jacob Schewe & Katja Frieler, 2023. "Extreme weather impacts do not improve conflict predictions in Africa," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
  22. Schaub, Max, 2024. "Violent conflict and the demand for healthcare: How armed conflict reduces trust, instills fear, and increases child mortality," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
  23. Mueller,Hannes Felix & Techasunthornwat,Chanon, 2020. "Conflict and Poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9455, The World Bank.
  24. Schaub, Max, 2024. "Violent conflict and the demand for healthcare: How armed conflict reduces trust, instills fear, and increases child mortality," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 359, pages 1-10.
  25. repec:osf:osfxxx:q59dr_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Reilly Barry & Sam Hannah, 2022. "The distributional impact of the Sierra Leone conflict on household welfare," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 13(1), pages 1-41, January.
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