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Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability

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  1. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2022. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1094-1106, June.
  2. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
  3. Louis R. Piccotti, 2022. "Portfolio returns and consumption growth covariation in the frequency domain, real economic activity, and expected returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 513-549, September.
  4. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Massacci, Daniele & Soccorsi, Stefano, 2021. "Forecasting stock returns with large dimensional factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 252-269.
  5. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 771-801, April.
  6. Florian Huber & Gregor Kastner & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2025. "Introducing shrinkage in heavy-tailed state space models to predict equity excess returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 535-553, February.
  7. Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Karouzakis, Nikolaos, 2024. "Sequential learning and economic benefits from dynamic term structure models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123659, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Hodrick, Robert J. & Tomunen, Tuomas, 2021. "Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 10(1), pages 83-123, April.
  9. Sarun Kamolthip, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with LSTM and Mixed Frequency Time Series Data," PIER Discussion Papers 165, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Hansen, Jorge Wolfgang, 2025. "Unspanned stochastic volatility in the linear-rational square-root model: Evidence from the Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
  11. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2024. "Econometrics of machine learning methods in economic forecasting," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 10, pages 246-273, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  12. Feng Zhao & Guofu Zhou & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2021. "Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7825-7843, December.
  13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  14. Strohsal, Till & Wolf, Elias, 2020. "Data revisions to German national accounts: Are initial releases good nowcasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1252-1259.
  15. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael & Luisi, Maurizio, 2013. "Eurozone Sovereign Yield Spreads and Diverging Economic Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 9538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Dai, Zhifeng & Kang, Jie, 2021. "Bond yield and crude oil prices predictability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  17. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Variants of Consumption-Wealth Ratios and Predictability of U.S. Government Bond Risk Premia: Old is still Gold," Working Papers 201912, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  18. Wan, Runqing & Fulop, Andras & Li, Junye, 2022. "Real-time Bayesian learning and bond return predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 114-130.
  19. Çepni, Oğguzhan & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Time-varying risk aversion and the predictability of bond premia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
  20. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael W. & Luisi, Maurizio, 2015. "Distilling the macroeconomic news flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 489-507.
  21. Nazemi, Abdolreza & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2024. "Interpretable machine learning for creditor recovery rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
  22. Rad, Hossein & Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Miffre, Joëlle & Faff, Robert, 2023. "The commodity risk premium and neural networks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  23. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021. "Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
  24. Leo Krippner & Michelle Lewis, 2018. "Real-time forecasting with macro-finance models in the presence of a zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  25. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
  26. Alessi, Lucia & Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Savona, Roberto, 2019. "Anatomy of a Sovereign Debt Crisis: CDS Spreads and Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2019-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
  27. Maghyereh, Aktham & Ziadat, Salem Adel & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq A., 2024. "Exploring the dynamic connections between oil price shocks and bond yields in developed nations: A TVP-SVAR-SV approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
  28. Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Variants of consumption‐wealth ratios and predictability of U.S. government bond risk premia," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 661-674, June.
  29. Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2024. "Predictive ability tests with possibly overlapping models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(1).
  30. Pradeep Mishra & Khder Alakkari & Mostafa Abotaleb & Pankaj Kumar Singh & Shilpi Singh & Monika Ray & Soumitra Sankar Das & Umme Habibah Rahman & Ali J. Othman & Nazirya Alexandrovna Ibragimova & Gulf, 2021. "Nowcasting India Economic Growth Using a Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) Model (Empirical Study with Economic Policy Uncertainty–Consumer Prices Index)," Data, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-15, November.
  31. Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7888-7911, December.
  32. Huang, Dashan & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Kunpeng & Tong, Guoshi & Zhou, Guofu, 2023. "Are bond returns predictable with real-time macro data?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  33. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & I. Ethem Güney & M. Yilmaz, 2020. "Forecasting local currency bond risk premia of emerging markets: The role of cross‐country macrofinancial linkages," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 966-985, September.
  34. Bouri, Elie & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Gold, platinum and the predictability of bond risk premia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
  35. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Guney, I. Ethem & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "The role of an aligned investor sentiment index in predicting bond risk premia of the U.S," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  36. Strohsal, Till & Wolf, Elias, 2019. "Data revisions to German national accounts: Are initial releases good nowcasts?," Discussion Papers 2019/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  37. Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2024. "Predicting Bond Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 931-951, February.
  38. Wan, Runqing & Xing, Bingxin Ann, 2025. "Can switching between predictive models and the historical average improve bond return predictability?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  39. Xiaosai Liao & Xinjue Li & Qingliang Fan, 2024. "Robust Bond Risk Premia Predictability Test in the Quantiles," Papers 2410.03557, arXiv.org.
  40. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Return Predictors and the Spanning Controversy in Macro-Finance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1780-1804, March.
  41. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael & Luisi, Maurizio, 2013. "Economic Cycles and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9528, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Joseph P Byrne & Shuo Cao, 2024. "Decomposing Uncertainty in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 428-449.
  43. Christos Ioannidis & Kook Ka, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1479-1522, September.
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