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Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: Its impact on biases and decision quality

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  1. Meissner, Philip & Brands, Christian & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 244-253.
  2. Christopher D. Ittner & Jeremy Michels, 2017. "Risk-based forecasting and planning and management earnings forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1005-1047, September.
  3. Ernst, Anna & Biß, Klaus H. & Shamon, Hawal & Schumann, Diana & Heinrichs, Heidi U., 2018. "Benefits and challenges of participatory methods in qualitative energy scenario development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 245-257.
  4. Rowe, Emily & Wright, George & Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important ‘weak signals’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 224-235.
  5. Riccardo Vecchiato & Giampiero Favato & Francesco di Maddaloni & Hang Do, 2020. "Foresight, cognition, and long‐term performance: Insights from the automotive industry and opportunities for future research," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), March.
  6. Bingham, Logan Robert, 2021. "Vittel as a model case in PES discourse: Review and critical perspective," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
  7. Lacroix, Denis & Laurent, Louis & de Menthière, Nicolas & Schmitt, Bertrand & Béthinger, Audrey & David, Bernard & Didier, Christophe & Parent du Châtelet, Jacques, 2019. "Multiple visions of the future and major environmental scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 93-102.
  8. Shardul Sharad Phadnis, 2021. "Advancing scenario planning theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack, 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
  9. Klos, Christoph & Spieth, Patrick, 2021. "READY, STEADY, DIGITAL?! How foresight activities do (NOT) affect individual technological frames for managerial SENSEMAKING," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  10. Jan Oliver Schwarz & René Rohrbeck & Bernhard Wach, 2020. "Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), June.
  11. Lehr, Thomas & Lorenz, Ullrich & Willert, Markus & Rohrbeck, René, 2017. "Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 214-224.
  12. Gary Bowman & R. Bradley MacKay, 2020. "Scenario planning as strategic activity: A practice‐orientated approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
  13. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
  14. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  15. Elna Schirrmeister & Anne‐Louise Göhring & Philine Warnke, 2020. "Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), June.
  16. von Wirth, Timo & Wissen Hayek, Ulrike & Kunze, Antje & Neuenschwander, Noemi & Stauffacher, Michael & Scholz, Roland W., 2014. "Identifying urban transformation dynamics: Functional use of scenario techniques to integrate knowledge from science and practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 115-130.
  17. Phadnis, Shardul & Caplice, Chris & Singh, Mahender & Sheffi, Yossi, 2014. "Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 122-139.
  18. Herbert Dawid & Reinhold Decker & Thomas Hermann & Hermann Jahnke & Wilhelm Klat & Rolf König & Christian Stummer, 2017. "Management science in the era of smart consumer products: challenges and research perspectives," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 25(1), pages 203-230, March.
  19. Filippo Zanin & Eugenio Comuzzi, 2019. "Scenarizzazione e pianificazione strategica nei contesti complessi," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2019(1 suppl.), pages 95-120.
  20. Ramirez, R. & Bhatti, Y. & Tapinos, E., 2020. "Exploring how experience and learning curves decrease the time invested in scenario planning interventions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  21. Eric Rega Christophe Bayala & Kwabena Owusu Asubonteng & Mirjam Ros-Tonen & Houria Djoudi & Freddie Sayi Siangulube & James Reed & Terry Sunderland, 2023. "Using Scenario Building and Participatory Mapping to Negotiate Conservation-Development Trade-Offs in Northern Ghana," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, February.
  22. Meissner, Philip & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "The effect of cognitive diversity on the illusion of control bias in strategic decisions: An experimental investigation," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 430-439.
  23. Shardul Phadnis & Chris Caplice & Yossi Sheffi & Mahender Singh, 2015. "Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1401-1411, September.
  24. Lorenz Graf-Vlachy, 2019. "Like student like manager? Using student subjects in managerial debiasing research," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 347-376, April.
  25. Crawford, Megan M., 2019. "A comprehensive scenario intervention typology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  26. Christopher Münch & Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2021. "A bibliometric review of scientific theory in futures and foresight: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
  27. Bouhalleb, Arafet & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2023. "The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
  28. Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol, 2021. "On inquiry in futures and foresight science," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), March.
  29. Zipan Cai & Bo Wang & Cong Cong & Vladimir Cvetkovic, 2020. "Spatial dynamic modelling for urban scenario planning: A case study of Nanjing, China," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(8), pages 1380-1396, October.
  30. Frith, David & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2020. "Opening the ‘black box’ of scenario planning through realist synthesis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  31. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
  32. Shardul Phadnis & Nitin Joglekar, 2021. "Configuring Supply Chain Dyads for Regulatory Disruptions: A Behavioral Study of Scenarios," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(4), pages 1014-1033, April.
  33. Philip Meissner & Torsten Wulf, 2016. "Debiasing illusion of control in individual judgment: the role of internal and external advice seeking," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 245-263, March.
  34. James Derbyshire & Mandeep Dhami & Ian Belton & Dilek Önkal, 2023. "The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
  35. Schulhof, Vera & van Vuuren, Detlef & Kirchherr, Julian, 2022. "The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): What Will it Look Like in the Future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
  36. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
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