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The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  2. Mark Musumba & Naureen Fatema & Shahriar Kibriya, 2021. "Prevention Is Better Than Cure: Machine Learning Approach to Conflict Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-18, July.
  3. Marup Hossain & Conner Mullally, 2022. "Using evaluation data to predict loan performance among poor borrowers: The case of BRAC’s asset transfer and microcredit programmes," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(3), May.
  4. Mueller, H. & Rauh, C. & Seimon, B., 2024. "Introducing a Global Dataset on Conflict Forecasts and News Topics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2404, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Robert A. Blair & Nicholas Sambanis, 2020. "Forecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Structure in an Age of “Big Data†and Machine Learning," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(10), pages 1885-1915, November.
  6. Galdo Virgilio & Acevedo Gladys Lopez & Rama Martin, 2021. "Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
  7. Paolo Campana. Andrea Giovannetti & Paolo Pin & Roberto Rozzi, 2025. "Criminal Property Rights Suppress Violence in Urban Drug Markets: Theory and Evidence from Merseyside, U.K," Papers 2508.02561, arXiv.org.
  8. Racek, Daniel & Thurner, Paul & Kauermann, Goeran, 2024. "Integrating Spatio-temporal Diffusion into Statistical Forecasting Models of Armed Conflict via Non-parametric Smoothing," OSF Preprints q59dr, Center for Open Science.
  9. Daisuke Miyakawa & Kohei Shintani, 2022. "Disagreement between human and machine predictions," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Machine learning in central banking, volume 57, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Yu-Chin Hsu & Robert P. Lieli, 2021. "Inference for ROC Curves Based on Estimated Predictive Indices," Papers 2112.01772, arXiv.org.
  11. Sidney Michelini & Barbora Šedová & Jacob Schewe & Katja Frieler, 2023. "Extreme weather impacts do not improve conflict predictions in Africa," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
  12. Dominic Rohner, 2025. "Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 12035, CESifo.
  13. Nicolas Gatti & Kathy Baylis & Benjamin Crost, 2021. "Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 211-231, January.
  14. Juan David Gelvez, 2025. "Predicting police and military violence: evidence from Colombia and Mexico using machine learning models," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
  15. Racek, Daniel & Thurner, Paul W. & Davidson, Brittany I. & Zhu, Xiao Xiang & Kauermann, Göran, 2024. "Conflict forecasting using remote sensing data: An application to the Syrian civil war," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 373-391.
  16. Schaub, Max, 2024. "Violent conflict and the demand for healthcare: How armed conflict reduces trust, instills fear, and increases child mortality," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
  17. Mueller,Hannes Felix & Techasunthornwat,Chanon, 2020. "Conflict and Poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9455, The World Bank.
  18. Aslihan Arslan, Romina Cavatassi, Marup Hossain, "undated". "Research Series 69: Structural and rural transformation and food systems: a quantitative synthesis for LMICs," IFAD Research Series 320720, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
  19. Mueller, H. & Rauh, C. & Seimon, B., 2024. "Introducing a Global Dataset on Conflict Forecasts and News Topics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2404, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  20. Augustin TAPSOBA, 2022. "Conflict prediction using Kernel density estimation," Working Paper 258fc89a-4ec3-4eef-a0ff-7, Agence française de développement.
  21. Adhvaryu, Achyuta & Fenske, James & Khanna, Gaurav & Nyshadham, Anant, 2021. "Resources, conflict, and economic development in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  22. Hannes Mueller & Christopher Rauh, 2022. "The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2440-2467.
  23. Yujun Zhou & Erin Lentz & Hope Michelson & Chungmann Kim & Kathy Baylis, 2022. "Machine learning for food security: Principles for transparency and usability," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 893-910, June.
  24. Schaub, Max, 2024. "Violent conflict and the demand for healthcare: How armed conflict reduces trust, instills fear, and increases child mortality," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 359, pages 1-10.
  25. repec:osf:osfxxx:q59dr_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Reilly Barry & Sam Hannah, 2022. "The distributional impact of the Sierra Leone conflict on household welfare," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 13(1), pages 1-41, January.
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