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Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ines Fortin & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Michael Obersteiner, 2024. "Regime‐dependent commodity price dynamics: A predictive analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2822-2847, November.
  2. Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Esen, Ömer, 2020. "Time-varying volatility spillovers between oil prices and precious metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  3. Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Commodity-price volatility and macroeconomic spillovers: Evidence from nine emerging markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 23-37.
  4. Heydari, Somayeh & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2010. "Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 709-725, May.
  5. Dannenberg, Henry & Ehrenfeld, Wilfried, 2010. "Stochastic Income Statement Planning and Emissions Trading," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  6. Xiafei Li & Dongxin Li & Xuhui Zhang & Guiwu Wei & Lan Bai & Yu Wei, 2021. "Forecasting regular and extreme gold price volatility: The roles of asymmetry, extreme event, and jump," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1501-1523, December.
  7. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
  8. Ke Tang, 2012. "Time-varying long-run mean of commodity prices and the modeling of futures term structures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 781-790, April.
  9. Alon Dourban & Liron Yedidsion, 2017. "Optimal Purchasing Policy For Mean-Reverting Items in a Finite Horizon," Papers 1711.03188, arXiv.org.
  10. Xiaoying Huang, 2017. "A Double-Exponential Jump model and its application to risk measure in Wheat spot market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1298-1309.
  11. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008. "Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield," Cahiers de recherche 0801, GREEN.
  12. Papenfuß, Patric & Schischke, Amelie & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2025. "Factors of predictive power for metal commodities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  13. Suryadeepto Nag & Sankarshan Basu & Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty, 2022. "Modeling the Commodity Prices of Base Metals in Indian Commodity Market Using a Higher Order Markovian Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(1), pages 159-171, March.
  14. repec:aen:journl:ej36-2-02 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Hao Sun & Bo Yu, 2020. "Forecasting Financial Returns Volatility: A GARCH-SVR Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 451-471, February.
  16. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.
  17. Na Jin & Sergio Lence & Chad Hart & Dermot Hayes, 2012. "The Long-Term Structure of Commodity Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(3), pages 718-735.
  18. Bouakez, Hafedh & Essid, Badye & Normandin, Michel, 2013. "Stock returns and monetary policy: Are there any ties?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 33-50.
  19. Chiu, Hsin-Yu & Chen, Ting-Fu, 2020. "Impact of volatility jumps in a mean-reverting model: Derivative pricing and empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  20. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
  21. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Michael Obersteiner, 2021. "Agricultural commodity price dynamics and their determinants: A comprehensive econometric approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1245-1273, November.
  22. Wen, Shaobo & An, Haizhong & Chen, Zhihua & Liu, Xueyong, 2017. "Driving factors of interactions between the exchange rate market and the commodity market: A wavelet-based complex network perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 299-308.
  23. Sebastian Ernst Volkmann & Felix Lehnen & Peter A. Kukla, 2019. "Estimating the economics of a mining project on seafloor manganese nodules," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(3), pages 287-306, November.
  24. Dominik Boos, 2024. "Risky times: Seasonality and event risk of commodities," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 767-783, May.
  25. Ge, Lei & Huang, Qiwei & Zhu, Fengshuang & Chen, Shun, 2025. "Advanced time series forecasting for commodities: Insights from the FEDformer model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  26. Armstrong, Margaret & Langrené, Nicolas & Petter, Renato & Chen, Wen & Petter, Carlos, 2019. "Accounting for tailings dam failures in the valuation of mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
  27. Xin, Ling, 2024. "Short-term contrarian in the carbon emission market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  28. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian, 2017. "Investigating the leverage effect in commodity markets with a recursive estimation approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 763-778.
  29. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2013. "A study on the Price Behavior of Base Metals traded in India," MPRA Paper 47028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  30. Gabriel J. Power & John R. C. Robinson, 2013. "Commodity futures price volatility, convenience yield and economic fundamentals," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 1089-1095, July.
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