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Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling

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  1. Parthasarathi, Pavithra & Levinson, David, 2010. "Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 428-443, November.
  2. Sciara, Gian-Claudia, 2012. "Financing congressional earmarks: Implications for transport policy and planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1328-1342.
  3. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Bester, Dirk W., 2021. "The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 395-419, October.
  4. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2013. "Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management: Getting Decisions Right by Taking the Outside View," Papers 1302.2544, arXiv.org.
  5. Mouter, Niek & Annema, Jan Anne & van Wee, Bert, 2013. "Ranking the substantive problems in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis practice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 241-255.
  6. Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2018. "Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which is the Better Explanation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 383-386.
  7. Penyalver, Domingo & Turró, Mateu & Williamson, John B., 2019. "Measuring the value for money of transport infrastructure procurement; an intergenerational approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 238-254.
  8. Stefano Moroni, 2014. "Grandi e piccole opere Per un?azione pubblica responsabile," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(3), pages 103-112.
  9. Hugosson, Muriel Beser, 2005. "Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 531-547, July.
  10. Brett Crowe, 2014. "Toll road Traffic Forecasts, Their Failures and How to Fix Them," Development Discussion Papers 2014-09, JDI Executive Programs.
  11. Huimin Liu & Canhui Jiang & Yan Liu & Marcel Hertogh & Xue Lyu, 2018. "Optimism Bias Evaluation and Decision-Making Risk Forecast on Bridge Project Cost Based on Reference Class Forecasting: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, October.
  12. Einat Tenenboim & Nira Munichor & Yoram Shiftan, 2023. "Justifying toll payment with biased travel time estimates: Behavioral findings and route choice modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 477-511, April.
  13. Manzo, Stefano & Nielsen, Otto Anker & Prato, Carlo Giacomo, 2015. "How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model :output A four-stage model case-study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-72.
  14. Penyalver, Domingo & Turró, Mateu & Zavala-Rojas, Diana, 2018. "Intergenerational perception of the utility of major transport projects," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 97-111.
  15. Sevcíková, Hana & Raftery, Adrian E. & Waddell, Paul A., 2011. "Uncertain benefits: Application of Bayesian melding to the Alaskan Way Viaduct in Seattle," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 540-553, July.
  16. Nicolaisen, Morten Skou & Næss, Petter, 2015. "Roads to nowhere: The accuracy of travel demand forecasts for do-nothing alternatives," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 57-63.
  17. Chantal C. Cantarelli & Bent Flybjerg & Eric J. E. Molin & Bert van Wee, 2013. "Cost overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness," Papers 1307.2176, arXiv.org.
  18. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2006. "Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 9-30, February.
  19. Olsson, Nils O.E. & Krane, Hans Petter & Rolstadås, Asbjørn & Veiseth, Mads, 2010. "Influence of reference points in ex post evaluations of rail infrastructure projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 251-258, August.
  20. West , Jens & Börjesson , Maria & Engelson , Leonid, 2016. "Forecasting effects of congestion charges," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:9, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  21. Salling, Kim Bang & Banister, David, 2009. "Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(9-10), pages 800-813, November.
  22. Carole Turley Voulgaris, 2020. "Trust in forecasts? Correlates with ridership forecast accuracy for fixed-guideway transit projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2439-2477, October.
  23. Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Erhardt, Gregory D. & Schmitt, David & Chen, Mei & Wachs, Martin, 2021. "Estimating the uncertainty of traffic forecasts from their historical accuracy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 339-349.
  24. Lise Arena & Eamonn Molloy, 2010. "The Governance Paradox in Megaprojects," Post-Print halshs-00721622, HAL.
  25. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2019. "On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 397-408.
  26. Bent Flyvbjerg & Cass R. Sunstein, 2015. "The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large," Papers 1509.01526, arXiv.org.
  27. Susilo, Yusak O. & Kitamura, Ryuichi, 2008. "Structural changes in commuters' daily travel: The case of auto and transit commuters in the Osaka metropolitan area of Japan, 1980-2000," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-115, January.
  28. Athias, Laure & Nunez, Antonio, 2008. "The more the merrier? Number of bidders, information dispersion, renegotiation and winner’s curse in toll road concessions," MPRA Paper 10539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Odeck, James, 2013. "How accurate are national road traffic growth-rate forecasts?—The case of Norway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 102-111.
  30. Hironori Kato & Yuichiro Kaneko & Masashi Inoue, 2010. "Comparative analysis of transit assignment: evidence from urban railway system in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(5), pages 775-799, September.
  31. Massimo Florio & Silvia Vignetti, 2013. "The use of ex post Cost-Benefit Analysis to assess the long-term effects of Major Infrastructure Projects," Working Papers 201302, CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies.
  32. Bent Flyvbjerg & Eamonn Molloy, 2011. "Delusion, Deception and Corruption in Major Infrastructure Projects: Causes, Consequences and Cures," Chapters, in: Susan Rose-Ackerman & Tina Søreide (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Corruption, Volume Two, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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