IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zrh/wpaper/374.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dealing with randomness in match outcomes: how to rethink performance evaluation and decision-making in European club football

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Brechot

    () (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich)

  • Raphael Flepp

    () (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich)

Abstract

In European club football, decision-makers often rely on recent match outcomes when evaluating team performance, even though short-term results are heavily influenced by randomness. This can lead to systematic misjudgments and flawed decisions when the random component is sufficiently large. We show that expected goals based on quantified scoring chances provide an evaluation metric that predicts future performance more accurately than do recent match results. Building upon this metric, we develop a chart that compares teams’ official league ranking to their ranking based on expected goals, which can alert decision makers to sensitive situations where a team’s true quality on the pitch is likely to deviate from the performance indicated by match outcomes due to random forces. Thus, incorporating this additional information into decision-making should enable clubs to avoid making poor decisions in certain situations and to improve the overall decision quality in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Brechot & Raphael Flepp, 2018. " Dealing with randomness in match outcomes: how to rethink performance evaluation and decision-making in European club football," Working Papers 374, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zrh:wpaper:374
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.business.uzh.ch/RePEc/zrh/wpaper/374_IBW_full.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    football; expected goals; performance evaluation; decision making;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zrh:wpaper:374. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Daniela Koller). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ibuzhch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.