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Beyond content: Investors' chatter, interaction and earnings announcement returns

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  • Gaul, Johannes
  • Schrader, Pascal

Abstract

We study the relationship between investors' social media activity and earnings announcement returns. To distinguish between information contained in peer-to-peer interaction and user-posted content, we analyze conversation networks on Reddit using centrality metrics from network science and classify user sentiment with large language models. We show that pre-announcement sentiment is positively associated with short-term cumulative abnormal returns only if it does not spark pre-announcement controversy. If pre-announcement controversy arises, we document a negative association. Our findings present a more nuanced view on the wisdom of crowds hypothesis, highlighting that peer-to-peer interaction on social media exhibits a pattern of normalization, and thus contains informational value beyond content.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaul, Johannes & Schrader, Pascal, 2025. "Beyond content: Investors' chatter, interaction and earnings announcement returns," ZEW Discussion Papers 25-040, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:327108
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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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