The role of droughts and religious cleavages in pastoralist conflict in Nigeria

This article studies the role of environmental and religious factors in the occurrence of pastoralist conflict in Nigeria using panel data at the 0.5 x 0.5ê grid cell level between 1997 and 2020. The empirical analysis provides robust evidence that the occurrence of droughts does not raise the likelihood of pastoralist conflict in those parts of the country where Muslim herders face a largely Muslim sedentary population. However, when there is a potential for interreligious tensions (i.e., in predominantly Christian parts of Nigeria), droughts significantly fuel pastoralist violence. That is, the adverse interaction between droughts and religious cleavages creates particularly potent conditions for the emergence of pastoralist conflict. This interpretation is supported by original survey data collected in 2021, which shows that Christians and Muslims disagree about the participants and causes of pastoralist conflict in Nigeria, again emphasizing the role of religious divides in this conflict.