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Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Legislativvorschläge: Studie im Auftrag des BMELV

Author

Listed:
  • Gömann, Horst
  • Heiden, Michael
  • Kleinhanß, Werner
  • Kreins, Peter
  • von Ledebur, Oliver
  • Offermann, Frank
  • Osterburg, Bernhard
  • Salamon, Petra

Abstract

Die Europäische Kommission hat Mitte Mai 2008 Legislativvorschläge zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) vorgelegt. Das Ziel der durchgeführten Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, die Wirkungen der HC-Vorschläge mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) zu analysieren. Die Auswirkungen der HC-Vorschläge wurden in einer komparativ-statischen Betrachnmg gegenüber einem Referenzszenario im Zieljahr 2015 analysiert. Nach den Modellberechnungen wird die Milcherzeugung in Deutschland nach Auslaufen der Quotenregelung um 6 % ausgedehnt. Dies impliziert ein Absinken des Marktpreises um 8 %. Die Ausdehnung erfolgt vor allem in Regionen mit hoher Produktionsdichte, so dass sich der regionale Konzentrationsprozess fortsetzt. Die Betriebseinkommen gehen im Bundesdurchschnitt um 5-7 % zurück; in Milchviehbetrieben um ca. 10 %. Höhere Einbußen sind durch die stärkere Kürzung der Direktzahlungen infolge der progressiven Modulation in Großbetrieben zu erwarten. Insgesamt stellen die HC-Vorschläge eine zu bewältigende Herausfordenmg für die deutsche Landwirtschaft dar, wenn die Möglichkeiten zur Ausgestaltung der Begleitmaßnahmen auf nationaler Ebene genutzt werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Gömann, Horst & Heiden, Michael & Kleinhanß, Werner & Kreins, Peter & von Ledebur, Oliver & Offermann, Frank & Osterburg, Bernhard & Salamon, Petra, 2008. "Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Legislativvorschläge: Studie im Auftrag des BMELV," Arbeitsberichte aus der vTI-Agrarökonomie 12/2008, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vtiaba:122008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Offermann, Frank & Kleinhanss, Werner & Huettel, Silke & Kuepker, Bernd, 2005. "Assessing the 2003 CAP Reform Impacts on German Agriculture Using the Farm Group Model FARMIS," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 234635, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Salamon, Petra & von Ledebur, Ernst-Oliver, 2005. "The impact of the mid-term review on the German agricultural sector," Arbeitsberichte aus der vTI-Agrarökonomie 04/2005, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kreins, P. & Heidecke, C. & Gömann, H. & Hirt, U. & Wendland, F., 2011. "Möglichkeiten und Grenzen der wissenschaftlichen Politikanalyse zur Umsetzung der Wasserrahmenrichtlinie – Anwendung eines hydro-ökonomischen Modellverbundes für das Weser Einzugsgebiet," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 46, March.
    2. Tietz, Andreas, 2010. "Auswirkungen von Health Check und EU-Konjunkturprogramm auf die ländlichen Entwicklungsprogramme der deutschen Bundesländer," Thünen Working Paper 102729, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    3. Britz, Wolfgang & Gocht, Alexander & Domínguez, Ignacio Pérez & Jansson, Torbjörn & Grosche, Stephanie-Carolin & Zhao, Na, 2012. "EU-Wide (Regional and Farm Level) Effects of Premium Decoupling and Harmonisation Following the Health Check Reform," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61(1).
    4. Britz, Wolfgang & Gocht, Alexander & Domínguez, Ignacio Pérez & Jansson, Torbjörn & Grosche, Stephanie-Carolin & Zhao, Na, 2012. "EU-Wide (Regional and Farm Level) Effects of Premium Decoupling and Harmonisation Following the Health Check Reform," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(01), pages 1-13, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health Check; Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik; modellgestützte Politikfolgenabschätzung; Health Check; Common Agricultural Policy; model-based impact analyses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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