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Will COVID-19 change the calculus of climate policy?

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  • Rutherford, Thomas F.
  • Böhringer, Christoph

Abstract

Public health experts caution that global warming increases the likelihood of novel coronaviruses and amplifies their impacts. Such contagions are virtually unique in their ability to inflict catastrophic worldwide harm. Even more alarming is the forecast that future coronavirus pandemics will be more frequent and potent. If the public comes to recognize that the pain and suffering they are currently experiencing are but another symptom of global warming, the motivation for urgent action to limit temperature rise may reach a tipping point. Navigating the current situation will require considering both existential threats jointly. Here, we present results from an integrated assessment model adapted to examine the implications of current and future pandemics for climate policy. We find that the threat of pandemics can lead to tighter temperature targets than might otherwise be justified. In a world of shrinking economic resources for reducing harm to public health and wellbeing, global warming and pandemics must be recognized as interconnected threats.

Suggested Citation

  • Rutherford, Thomas F. & Böhringer, Christoph, 2021. "Will COVID-19 change the calculus of climate policy?," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242432, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc21:242432
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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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