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Framework for embedding black-box simulation into mathematical programming via kriging surrogate model applied to natural gas liquefaction process optimization

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  • Santos, Lucas F.
  • Costa, Caliane B.B.
  • Caballero, José A.
  • Ravagnani, Mauro A.S.S.

Abstract

This paper presents a framework to solve the constrained black-box simulation optimization problem that arises from the optimal energy-efficient design of single-mixed refrigerant natural gas liquefaction process using reliable process simulator. Kriging surrogate model is used to introduce simple, computationally inexpensive, and effective algebraic formulations with reliable derivatives to the black-box objective and constraints functions. The algebraic surrogate optimization problem is embedded into a nonlinear programming (NLP) model in General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). The NLP problem is solved using efficient multi-start gradient-based optimization with CONOPT local solver to determine a candidate of decision variables for which the true functions are calculated in the rigorous simulation. The single-mixed refrigerant process is analyzed considering one-to-three-stage expansion and phase separation to assess potential energy savings. The present approach results show that more expansion stages can provide energy savings from 12.02 to 14.70 % comparing two-stage and three-stage expansion system with single-stage. This optimization framework is more effective and consistent than Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm given the same budget of simulation evaluations for the considered simulation optimization problems, resulting in 13.57 to 53.26 % of energy savings.

Suggested Citation

  • Santos, Lucas F. & Costa, Caliane B.B. & Caballero, José A. & Ravagnani, Mauro A.S.S., 2022. "Framework for embedding black-box simulation into mathematical programming via kriging surrogate model applied to natural gas liquefaction process optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:310:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922000241
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118537
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Khan, Mohd Shariq & I.A. Karimi, & Bahadori, Alireza & Lee, Moonyong, 2015. "Sequential coordinate random search for optimal operation of LNG (liquefied natural gas) plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 757-767.
    2. Santos, Lucas F. & Costa, Caliane B.B. & Caballero, José A. & Ravagnani, Mauro A.S.S., 2020. "Synthesis and optimization of work and heat exchange networks using an MINLP model with a reduced number of decision variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    3. Arne Stolbjerg Drud, 1994. "CONOPT—A Large-Scale GRG Code," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 6(2), pages 207-216, May.
    4. Satyajith Amaran & Nikolaos V. Sahinidis & Bikram Sharda & Scott J. Bury, 2016. "Simulation optimization: a review of algorithms and applications," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 240(1), pages 351-380, May.
    5. Khan, Mohd Shariq & Lee, Moonyong, 2013. "Design optimization of single mixed refrigerant natural gas liquefaction process using the particle swarm paradigm with nonlinear constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 146-155.
    6. Na, Jonggeol & Lim, Youngsub & Han, Chonghun, 2017. "A modified DIRECT algorithm for hidden constraints in an LNG process optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 488-500.
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    1. Tak, Kyungjae & Park, Jaedeuk & Moon, Il & Lee, Ung, 2023. "Comparison of mixed refrigerant cycles for natural gas liquefaction: From single mixed refrigerant to mixed fluid cascade processes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    2. Yin, Xiong & Wen, Kai & Huang, Weihe & Luo, Yinwei & Ding, Yi & Gong, Jing & Gao, Jianfeng & Hong, Bingyuan, 2023. "A high-accuracy online transient simulation framework of natural gas pipeline network by integrating physics-based and data-driven methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    3. Zhou, Jianzhao & Chu, Yin Ting & Ren, Jingzheng & Shen, Weifeng & He, Chang, 2023. "Integrating machine learning and mathematical programming for efficient optimization of operating conditions in organic Rankine cycle (ORC) based combined systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    4. Santos, Lucas F. & Costa, Caliane B.B. & Caballero, José A. & Ravagnani, Mauro A.S.S., 2023. "Multi-objective simulation–optimization via kriging surrogate models applied to natural gas liquefaction process design," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).

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