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Are GARCH innovations independent - a long term assessment for the S&P 500

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  • Herwartz, Helmut

Abstract

GARCH specifications have been widely applied in financial literature and practice. For purposes of (Quasi) ML (QML) estimation innovations to GARCH processes are assumed identically and independently distributed (iid) with mean zero and unit variance. In this note GARCH innovations entering daily S\&P 500 quotes are diagnosed to lack independence and to signal ex-ante the directions of stock price changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Herwartz, Helmut, 2015. "Are GARCH innovations independent - a long term assessment for the S&P 500," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113109, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113109
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mills,Terence C. & Markellos,Raphael N., 2008. "The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521710091.
    2. Christian M. Hafner & Helmut Herwartz, 2000. "Testing for linear autoregressive dynamics under heteroskedasticity," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 177-197.
    3. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    4. Mills,Terence C. & Markellos,Raphael N., 2008. "The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521883818.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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