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Wohlfahrtseffekte der Handelsliberalisierung: Studie im Auftrag des Sachverständigenrates zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Endbericht vom 22. September 2017

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  • Felbermayr, Gabriel
  • Gröschl, Jasmin
  • Jung, Benjamin

Abstract

Die deutsche Volkwirtschaft ist seit 1990 deutlich offener geworden. Der Anteil der Exporte am BIP hat sich zwischen 1990 und 2016 von 20% auf 46% und jener der Importe von 20% auf 38% erhöht. Die heimische Wertschöpfung, die hinter Güter- und Dienstleistungsexporten steckt, hat sich auf 32% der Gesamtwertschöpfung im Jahr 2014 erhöht; im Jahr 2000 lag dieser Anteil noch bei 24%. Zwischen 1990 und 2014 haben das reale Prokopfeinkommen in Deutschland kumulativ um 38% und der reale Prokopfkonsum kumulativ um 33% zugelegt. Die wichtigsten Veränderungen, die zu einer höheren Offenheit geführt haben, waren die Ostöffnung und die Beitritte von 16 neuen Mitgliedern in die EU, der Aufstieg Chinas und sein Beitritt in die WTO im Jahr 2001, die Einführung des Euros und die Schaffung der Schengenzone im Jahr 1999. Der Anteil der Weltnachfrage, der aus deutscher Sicht durch EU Freihandelsabkommen (FHA) abgedeckt ist beträgt 2016 circa 11%; 1990 betrug er weniger als 1%.Seit 1990 haben sich der Anteil des Weltnachfrage, der den Regeln der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) unterliegt, von 78% im Jahr 1990 auf 99% im Jahr 2016 erhöht und die Anzahl der Mitglieder von 99 auf 164.

Suggested Citation

  • Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Jung, Benjamin, 2017. "Wohlfahrtseffekte der Handelsliberalisierung: Studie im Auftrag des Sachverständigenrates zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Endbericht vom 22. September 2017," Working Papers 03/2017, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:032017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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