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Do Japanese stock prices reflect macro fundamentals?

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  • Chen, Wenjuan
  • Velinov, Anton

Abstract

This paper investigates to what extent the fundamentals of the real economy are reflected in the stock prices of Japan. A Markov switching VAR model with switching variances is used to test the structural identification scheme. Identification of fundamental and nonfundamental shocks is shown to be supported by the data. Based on the appropriate structural restriction, the historical stock prices are decomposed into fundamental components and nonfundamental components. The decomposition shows that the linkage between Japanese stock prices and real activity shocks became strengthened since the bubble collapsed in the beginning of 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Wenjuan & Velinov, Anton, 2012. "Do Japanese stock prices reflect macro fundamentals?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-037, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2012-037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How important are fundamentals?--Evidence from a structural VAR model for the stock markets in the US, Japan and Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 185-201, April.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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