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A joint analysis of the KOSPI 200 option and ODAX option markets dynamics

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  • Cao, Ji
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Mungo, Julius

Abstract

As a function of strike and time to maturity the implied volatility estimation is a challenging task in financial econometrics. Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Models (DSFM) are a model class that allows for the estimation of the implied volatility surface (IVS) in a dynamic context, employing semiparametric factor functions and time-varying loadings. Because financial asset volatilities move over time, across assets and over markets, this paper analyses volatility interaction between German and Korean stock markets. As proxy for the volatility, factor loadings series derived from a DSFM application on option prices are employed. We examine volatility transmission between the markets under the vector autoregressive (VAR) model framework. Our results show that a shock in the volatility of one market may not translate directly into greater uncertainty in another market and it is unlikely that portfolio investors can benefit from diversification among these markets due to cointegration.

Suggested Citation

  • Cao, Ji & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Mungo, Julius, 2009. "A joint analysis of the KOSPI 200 option and ODAX option markets dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-019, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2009-019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Ralf Brüggemann & Wolfgang Härdle & Julius Mungo & Carsten Trenkler, 2008. "VAR Modeling for Dynamic Loadings Driving Volatility Strings," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 361-381, Summer.
    3. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    4. Atsuyuki Naka & David Tufte, 1997. "Examining impulse response functions in cointegrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1593-1603.
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    Cited by:

    1. Strausz, Roland, 2009. "The political economy of regulatory risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. Michał Grajek & Lars-Hendrik Röller, 2012. "Regulation and Investment in Network Industries: Evidence from European Telecoms," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 189-216.
    3. Grith, Maria & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Park, Juhyun, 2009. "Shape invariant modelling pricing kernels and risk aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-041, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Mihoci, Andrija, 2012. "Modelling and forecasting liquidity supply using semiparametric factor dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 610-625.
    5. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-039 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Choroś, Barbara & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Ostap, 2009. "CDO and HAC," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-038, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-038 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-040 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-041 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    implied volatility surface; dynamic semiparametric factor model; VAR; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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