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ARIMA: Bevölkerungsprognosen für Deutschland und Rheinland-Pfalz

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  • Dempwolff, Nelly
  • Schulze, Peter M.

Abstract

Die Analyse präsentiert Prognosen für die deutsche und rheinland-pfälzische Bevölkerung mithilfe von ARIMA-Modellen. Außerdem wird ein Vergleich dieser Ergebnisse zu den theoriehaltigen Prognosen des Statistischen Bundesamtes, des Statistischen Landesamtes Rheinland-Pfalz und des Bundesamtes für Bauwesen und Raumordnung gezogen. Die Prognose befasst sich mit der Veränderung des Bevölkerungsstandes und der Altersstruktur bis zum Jahr 2020. ; The aim of this paper is, on one hand, to develop forecasts for the populations of the state Rhineland-Palatinate and Germany by ARIMA models. The other goal is a comparison of the ARIMA computations with the theory-based forecasts of the German Federal Statistical Offices and the Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning. The analysis deals with the change of the population numbers and the age structure. The year 2020 is our horizon of forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Dempwolff, Nelly & Schulze, Peter M., 2009. "ARIMA: Bevölkerungsprognosen für Deutschland und Rheinland-Pfalz," Arbeitspapiere des Instituts für Statistik und Ökonometrie 43, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:maista:43
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pflaumer, Peter, 1992. "Forecasting US population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 329-338, November.
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