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Inflationsgefahren werden größer - Welchen Kurs soll die Geldpolitik steuern? Thesen zum 38. Kieler Konjunkturgespräch

  • Langfeldt, Enno
  • Scheide, Joachim
  • Trapp, Peter
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    Table of Contents: I. Kräftige Konjunkturbelebung verstärkt Inflationserwartungen in den Industrieländern 3 1. Deutliche Zunahme der Produktion 3 2. Ausblick: Geldpolitik dämpft Konjunktur 1989 6 3. Stabilitätsorientierung der Geldpolitik kontrovers 8 II. Was kann die Geldpolitik leisten? 9 1. Geldpolitik ist für Preisniveaustabilität verantwortlich 9 2. Geldpolitik kann Wachstum und Beschäftigung nicht dauerhaft erhöhen 11 III. Die Praxis der Geldmengenziele 14 1. Zur Bedeutung der Geldmengenziele 14 2. Diskretionäre Politik trotz Geldmengenziel 15 IV. Sollen sich die Notenbanken an anderen Indikatoren orientieren? 20 1. Was sagen Zinsen über den Kurs der Geldpolitik aus? 20 2. Sind Rohstoffpreise ein geeigneter monetärer Indikator? ... 23 3. Setzt die Stabilität des Preisniveaus stabile Wechselkurse voraus? .. 26 4. Statt eines Indikators viele verschiedene Indikatoren? 29 V. Geldmengenorientierung sollte beibehalten werden 31 1. Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmenge und wirtschaftlicher Aktivität besteht nach wie vor 31 2. Geldmengenregeln sind nicht obsolet 34 3. Konkrete Beispiele für die Ausgestaltung von Geldmengenregeln . . . . 35 VI. Stärkere gesetzliche Bindung gegen erratische Geldpolitik 39 1. Warum Geldmengenregeln nicht eingehalten werden 39 2. Geldmengenregeln müssen gesetzlich festgelegt werden 41 3. Wie die Geldverfassung aussehen könnte 42 Literaturverzeichnis 44

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    Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in its series Kiel Discussion Papers with number 142.

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    Date of creation: 1988
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkdp:142
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    1. Meltzer, Allan H, 1987. "Limits of Short-run Stabilization Policy: Presidential Address to the Western Economic Association, July 3, 1986," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(1), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
    3. Milton Friedman, 1961. "The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69, pages 447.
    4. Martine Durand & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 1988. "Are Commodity Prices Leading Indicators of OECD Prices?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 49, OECD Publishing.
    5. Jean-Claude Chouraqui & Michael Driscoll & Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn, 1988. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on the Real Sector: An Overview of Empirical Evidence for Selected OECD Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 51, OECD Publishing.
    6. Scheide, Joachim, 1987. "Anstieg und Fall des Dollarkurses - Folgen der amerikanischen Geldpolitik?," Kiel Discussion Papers 131, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: a concrete example," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 10-18.
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