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Zum Einfluss der wirtschaftspolitischen Unsicherheit auf die deutsche Konjunktur

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  • Berend, Lukas
  • Jannsen, Nils

Abstract

Durch die vorzeitige Auflösung der bisher regierenden Koalition hat die Bundesregierung keine Mehrheit mehr im Parlament. Der Haushalt für das Jahr 2025 dürfte nicht mehr beschlossen werden. Da die Neu-wahlen im Februar anstehen, Zeit für eventuelle Koalitionsverhandlungen verstreichen wird und die neue Regierung dann erst den Haushalt vorschlagen kann, gehen wir davon aus, dass der Bund bis in das dritte Quartal 2025 ohne geltendes Haushaltsgesetz agieren muss. Zudem dürften einige Projekte, deren Realisierung wir bisher in der Prognose unterstellt hatten, entfallen.

Suggested Citation

  • Berend, Lukas & Jannsen, Nils, 2024. "Zum Einfluss der wirtschaftspolitischen Unsicherheit auf die deutsche Konjunktur," Kiel Insight 2024.11, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:308148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benjamin Born & Sebastian Breuer & Steffen Elstner, 2018. "Uncertainty and the Great Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(5), pages 951-971, October.
    2. Ademmer, Martin & Beckmann, Joscha & Jannsen, Nils, 2019. "Zu den Auswirkungen des jüngsten Anstiegs der globalen wirtschaftspolitischen Unsicherheit," Kiel Insight 2019.7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    8. Martin Ademmer & Nils Jannsen, 2019. "Globale Unsicherheit und deutsche Konjunktur [Global uncertainty and the Germany economy]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(7), pages 519-520, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Schröder, Christian & Sonnenberg, Nils, 2024. "German Forecast in Winter 2024: No Recovery in Sight," Kiel Institute Economic Outlook 120, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Krohn, Johanna & Reents, Jan & Schröder, Christian, 2025. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2025: Finanzpolitik dreht mächtig auf," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 122, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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