IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/303.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Post-Crisis Phillips Curve: A New Empirical Relationship between Wage and Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Voinea, Liviu

Abstract

In this paper we test a new empirical relationship between wage and inflation. We introduce the concept of a cumulative wage gap, meaning the cumulative gap between the current wage and a maximum peak wage value in the past. In a crisis, people relate to their peak gains in the immediate past. We assume that people judge their consumption decisions based on the relation between their current wages and their past wages, adjusted for inflation. We call this the post-crisis Phillips Curve. The shape of the post-crisis Phillips Curve expresses the theoretical assumption that the inflation rate stays below its target until the cumulative real wage gap closes, and that it increases above its target when the cumulative real wage gap becomes positive. We test our hypothesis using data for 35 OECD countries for the period 1990-2017. We are able to confirm our hypothesis, as the coefficients have the expected sign and are statistically significant for the OECD panel as well as for most of the individual countries. We also find a break in the slope of the curve, as the coefficients are higher after the cumulative wage gap closes.

Suggested Citation

  • Voinea, Liviu, 2019. "The Post-Crisis Phillips Curve: A New Empirical Relationship between Wage and Inflation," GLO Discussion Paper Series 303, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:303
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/191301/1/GLO-DP-0303.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordi Galí, 2011. "The Return Of The Wage Phillips Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 436-461, June.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery," NBER Working Papers 19390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. James Forder, 2014. "Nine views of the Phillips curve: Eight authentic and one inauthentic," Economics Series Working Papers 724, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    7. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, May.
    8. James B. Bullard, 2018. "The Case of the Disappearing Phillips Curve: a presentation at the 2018 ECB Forum on Central Banking Macroeconomics of Price- and Wage-Setting, Sintra, Portugal," Speech 314, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Robert J. Gordon, 1977. "Can the Inflation of the 1970s be Explained?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 253-279.
    10. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ali Alichi, 2015. "A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2015/144, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    2. Speigner, Bradley, 2014. "Long-term unemployment and convexity in the Phillips curve," Bank of England working papers 519, Bank of England.
    3. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    4. Ulrike Malmendier & Leslie Sheng Shen, 2018. "Scarred Consumption," NBER Working Papers 24696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Homburg, Stefan, 2017. "A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198807537.
    6. Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "Rethinking fiscal policy : lessons from the european monetary union," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03457591, HAL.
    7. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Shen, Leslie, 2020. "Scarred Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 14937, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2012. "The stock market crash of 2008 caused the Great Recession: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 693-707.
    9. Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "Rethinking fiscal policy : lessons from the european monetary union," Sciences Po publications 219, Sciences Po.
    10. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    11. Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "Rethinking fiscal policy : lessons from the european monetary union," Working Papers hal-03457591, HAL.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eul7jlnf19iq8tdp0vlfv63n5 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 317-340, May.
    14. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "The (conflict-augmented) Phillips Curve is alive and well," Working Papers 0055, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    15. Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2012. "The Consumption-Investment-Unemployment Relationship in Spain: an Analysis with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 42681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    17. Leyla BAŞTAV, 2019. "ABD İşgücü Piyasasında Histeresi Etkisi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma: Yeni Keynesyen Ücret Phillips Eğrisi (1990-2014)," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.
    18. Christian Johnson & George G Kaufman, 2007. "Un banco, con cualquier otro nombre…," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 185-199, Octubre-d.
    19. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Insider-outsider labor markets, hysteresis and monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 1506, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2020.
    20. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    21. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    wage; cumulative wage gap; inflation; Phillips Curve; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.