Refugee Absorption and Electoral Change: Evidence from the Indian Partition

The 1947 Partition of British India triggered the largest forced migration of the twentieth century, redistributing millions of refugees across newly independent India. We study whether this demographic shock left a lasting imprint on democratic politics. Combining district-level refugee shares from the 1951 Census with constituency-level electoral data covering Indian state assembly elections between 1960 and 2007, we estimate the long-run effects of refugee settlement on electoral competition. We find that constituencies exposed to larger refugee inflows exhibit higher voter turnout, narrower victory margins, and a lower likelihood of electing candidates from national parties. Instead, refugee settlement shifted electoral support toward regional parties and contributed to the long-run denationalization of political competition. Our findings show that large demographic shocks can leave enduring political legacies, reshaping patterns of political representation and party competition long after displacement itself has ended.