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GDP and the Limits of Macroeconomic Measurement in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • Shehab, Elmekdad

Abstract

Purpose - This article examines how the diffusion of artificial intelligence is widening a long-running gap between what GDP records and what economies now produce, and what this implies for the macroeconomic measurement framework on which policy still depends. Design/methodology/approach - The argument is conceptual. It rests on a synthesis of three established literatures and a reading of recent empirical evidence on AI diffusion through that lens. Findings - AI enlarges this gap through two channels. The first is the spread of free digital goods that users value highly but rarely pay for, with unrecorded consumer surplus from generative AI now estimated in the tens of billions of dollars annually. The second is the distance between the heavy investment now flowing into AI and the modest productivity the statistics so far record, a lag familiar from earlier general-purpose technologies. Originality/value - The article develops an integrated framework that connects three literatures usually examined separately: the welfare critique of GDP, data economics, and the diffusion of general-purpose technologies. Through this framework, artificial intelligence emerges as a contemporary stress test of macroeconomic measurement, revealing a growing divergence between GDP and the value the economy actually produces.

Suggested Citation

  • Shehab, Elmekdad, 2026. "GDP and the Limits of Macroeconomic Measurement in the Age of Artificial Intelligence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1782, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1782
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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