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The Brazilian Rise and the Elusive South American Balance

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  • Schenoni, Luis Leandro

Abstract

Within the last 50 years, the Brazilian share of South American power has increased from one-third to one-half of the overall material capabilities in the region. Such a significant change in the regional power structure cannot have gone unnoticed by Brazil's neighbors. The article addresses the main question related to South American unipolarity (1985-2014): Why have most countries in the region not implemented any consistent balancing or bandwagoning strategies vis-à-vis Brazil? Drawing on neoclassical realism, the article proposes that certain domestic variables - government instability, limited party-system institutionalization, and powerful presidents - have diverted the attention of political elites and foreign policy executives from the challenges generated by a rising Brazil. Crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis is used to test this hypothesis and other alternative explanations for the regional imbalance.

Suggested Citation

  • Schenoni, Luis Leandro, 2015. "The Brazilian Rise and the Elusive South American Balance," GIGA Working Papers 269, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gigawp:269
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shugart,Matthew Soberg & Carey,John M., 1992. "Presidents and Assemblies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521419628.
    2. Abb, Pascal, 2013. "What Drives Interstate Balancing? Estimations of Domestic and Systemic Factors," GIGA Working Papers 238, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    3. Brooks, Stephen G., 1997. "Dueling Realisms," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 445-477, July.
    4. Shugart,Matthew Soberg & Carey,John M., 1992. "Presidents and Assemblies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521429900.
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    1. Schenoni, Luis Leandro, 2016. "Regional Power Transitions: Lessons from the Southern Cone," GIGA Working Papers 293, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

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