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Zeitenwende und öffentliche Finanzen

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  • Corneo, Giacomo

Abstract

Was bedeutet die verteidigungspolitische Wende Deutschlands für seine öffentlichen Finanzen? Dieser Beitrag offeriert einfache Formeln, mit denen zentrale finanzpolitische Implikationen quantifiziert werden können. Es zeigt sich, dass eine reine Kreditfinanzierung bereits nach wenigen Jahren eine kräftige Schuldenspirale auslösen würde. Die optimale Steuerung der Staatsverschuldung sieht vielmehr so aus, dass die Schuldenstandsquote bis Anfang 2030 fallen soll und danach konstant bleiben soll. Die erforderliche Erhöhung der Steuerquote ist beträchtlich. Die verteidigungspolitische Wende geht mit einer permanenten Erhöhung der Steuerquote um rund drei Prozentpunkte einher. Hinzu kommt die von der Bevölkerungsalterung bedingte Erhöhung der Steuerquote.

Suggested Citation

  • Corneo, Giacomo, 2026. "Zeitenwende und öffentliche Finanzen," Discussion Papers 2026/8, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:340000
    DOI: 10.17169/refubium-51761
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    References listed on IDEAS

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