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Does the financial market believe in the Phillips Curve? Evidence from the G7 countries


  • Fendel, Ralf
  • Lis, Eliza M.
  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph


This paper uses monthly survey data for the G7 countries for the time period 1989 - 2007 to explore the link between expectations on nominal wages, prices and unemployment rate as suggested by the traditional and Samuelson-and-Solow-type Phillips curve. Three major findings stand out: First, we find that survey participants trust in the original as well as the Samuelson-and-Solow-type Phillips curve relationship. Second, we find evidence in favor of nonlinearities in the expected Samuelson-and-Solow-type Phillips curve. Third, when we take into account a kink in the expected Phillips curve indicating that the slope of the Phillips curve differs during the business cycle, we find strong evidence of this feature in the data which confirms recent the- oretical discussions in the literature that the Phillips curve is flatter in case of an economic downturn.

Suggested Citation

  • Fendel, Ralf & Lis, Eliza M. & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2008. "Does the financial market believe in the Phillips Curve? Evidence from the G7 countries," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 73, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:73

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & Dave Rae & Pete Richardson & Dave Turner, 2003. "Estimating the structural rate of unemployment for the OECD countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2001(2), pages 171-216.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    3. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
    4. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    5. Jane Ihrig & Jaime Marquez, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of Inflation in OECD Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 61-84, March.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The unconfessed goal of Italian labour market reform
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2012-04-12 17:03:00
    2. Lo scopo inconfessato della riforma del mercato del lavoro
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2012-04-12 17:24:00
      by free-italia in Free Italia on 2012-04-13 15:30:00

    More about this item


    Phillips curve; Forecasting; Panel data model;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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