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Sources of post-pandemic inflation in Germany and the euro area: An application of Bernanke and Blanchard (2023)

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  • Menz, Jan-Oliver

Abstract

We use a simple macroeconomic model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to investigate the reasons for the recent sharp rise in inflation. Applied to Germany and the euro area, the model suggests that the surge in inflation has mainly been caused by commodity price shocks and supply bottlenecks, rather than shortages in the labour market. Inflation expectations were found to be well-anchored and evidence for a wage-price spiral is scarce. The model predicts a gradual decline in future inflation rates. However, this prediction is based on the assumption that there will be no commodity price shocks and that the labour market will cool down.

Suggested Citation

  • Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2024. "Sources of post-pandemic inflation in Germany and the euro area: An application of Bernanke and Blanchard (2023)," Technical Papers 02/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubtps:290409
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olga Bilyk & Timothy Grieder & Mikael Khan, 2023. "Markups and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-8, Bank of Canada.
    2. Bijnens, Gert & Duprez, Cédric & Jonckheere, Jana, 2023. "Have greed and rapidly rising wages triggered a profit-wage-price spiral? Firm-level evidence for Belgium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    3. Fares Bounajm & Jean Garry Junior Roc & Yang Zhang, 2024. "Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: an application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model," Staff Analytical Notes 2024-13, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Hohberger, 2025. "Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-49, February.
    2. Nuno Vilarinho Goncalves, 2024. "Post-pandemic inflation dynamics in Portugal: an application of the Bernanke-Blanchard model," Working Papers w202418, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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