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The Benefits of Gradualism in Government Expenditure Changes: Theory and Experimental Evidence

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  • von Hagen, Jürgen
  • Kube, Sebastian
  • Kaiser, Johannes
  • Selten, Reinhard
  • Pope, Robin

Abstract

Government expenditure can be highly variable, if used as a countercyclical instrument, or as a response to economic crises or as a means of rapidly altering other features of the economy. An alternative policy setting is to keep government expenditure changes gradual and modest. It is shown that whether a more discretionary or a more stable usage of government expenditures better attains official sector macroeconomic goals is difficult to determine theoretically, in part because of missed risk effects. But the detecting which policy better meets the official sector macroeconomic goals from analysis of historical data or inter-country comparisons suffers from confounding events and institutions. This study offers a fresh insight from laboratory experiments. Our laboratory results favour gradualism in government expenditures, ie support the advocacy of more stable government expenditures offered in Friedman (1969), in Vernengo and Rochon (2000), and in the 2006 German tax change controversy, by that country?s local government sector.

Suggested Citation

  • von Hagen, Jürgen & Kube, Sebastian & Kaiser, Johannes & Selten, Reinhard & Pope, Robin, 2006. "The Benefits of Gradualism in Government Expenditure Changes: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 26/2006, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bonedp:262006
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/22975/1/bgse26_2006.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David M. Kreps & Evan L. Porteus, 2013. "Temporal von Neumann—Morgenstern and Induced Preferences," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 11, pages 181-206, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. von Hagen, Jurgen & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Federalism, Fiscal Restraints, and European Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 134-138, May.
    3. Pope Robin E, 2006. "Letter: Replacing Payroll with Sales Taxes Shifts Risks from Firms to Governments," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(9), pages 1-12, November.
    4. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279-279.
    5. Pope, Robin, 2004. "Biases from omitted risk effects in standard gamble utilities," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 695-735, July.
    6. James K. Galbraith & Enrique Garcilazo, 2004. "Unemployment, inquality and the policy of Europe: 1984-2000," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(228), pages 3-28.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian & Kaiser, Johannes & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2007. "Exchange Rate Determination: A Model of the Decisive Role of Central Bank Cooperation and Conflict," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 18/2007, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gradualism; shock therapy; discretionary or counter-cyclical government expenditure; laboratory experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • B20 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other

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