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Firm valuation and the uncertainty of future tax avoidance

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  • Jacob, Martin
  • Schütt, Harm

Abstract

The paper studies the effect of uncertainty in tax avoidance on firm value. We first show in a clean surplus valuation model that expected tax rates interact with expectations about future profitability. This paper builds and tests a valuation framework that incorporates two outcome dimensions of corporate tax avoidance strategies: the stability and the level of expected tax rates. We develop a tax planning score that captures these two dimensions. The measure improves the prediction of future tax avoidance. We finally show that the tax planning score strengthens the effect of pre-tax earnings on firm value. Firms with effective and persistent tax planning have a stronger effect of pre-tax earnings on firm value while firms with poor tax planning or volatile effective tax rates receive a discount on their earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob, Martin & Schütt, Harm, 2013. "Firm valuation and the uncertainty of future tax avoidance," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 149, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:arqudp:149
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/86156/1/770820859.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shackelford, Douglas A. & Shevlin, Terry, 2001. "Empirical tax research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 321-387, September.
    2. repec:bla:joares:v:37:y:1999:i:2:p:387-413 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dhaliwal, Dan & Erickson, Merle & Frank, Mary Margaret & Banyi, Monica, 2003. "Are shareholder dividend taxes on corporate retained earnings impounded in equity prices? Additional evidence and analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 179-200, June.
    4. Richard Lambert & Christian Leuz & Robert E. Verrecchia, 2007. "Accounting Information, Disclosure, and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 385-420, May.
    5. Dechow, Patricia M. & Hutton, Amy P. & Sloan, Richard G., 1999. "An empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model1," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-3), pages 1-34, January.
    6. repec:bla:joares:v:38:y:2000:i:1:p:71-101 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    8. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1988. "Management ownership and market valuation," Scholarly Articles 29407535, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    9. Hanlon, Michelle & Heitzman, Shane, 2010. "A review of tax research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 127-178, December.
    10. repec:bla:joares:v:37:y:1999:i:2:p:275-291 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    12. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1988. "Management ownership and market valuation : An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 293-315, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brooks, Chris & Godfrey, Chris & Hillenbrand, Carola & Money, Kevin, 2016. "Do investors care about corporate taxes?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-248.
    2. Flagmeier, Vanessa, 2017. "The information content of tax loss carryforwards: IAS 12 vs. valuation allowance," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 216, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm valuation; tax avoidance; tax uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

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