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Firm valuation and the uncertainty of future tax avoidance

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  • Jacob, Martin
  • Schütt, Harm

Abstract

The paper studies the effect of uncertainty in tax avoidance on firm value. We first show in a clean surplus valuation model that expected tax rates interact with expectations about future profitability. This paper builds and tests a valuation framework that incorporates two outcome dimensions of corporate tax avoidance strategies: the stability and the level of expected tax rates. We develop a tax planning score that captures these two dimensions. The measure improves the prediction of future tax avoidance. We finally show that the tax planning score strengthens the effect of pre-tax earnings on firm value. Firms with effective and persistent tax planning have a stronger effect of pre-tax earnings on firm value while firms with poor tax planning or volatile effective tax rates receive a discount on their earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob, Martin & Schütt, Harm, 2013. "Firm valuation and the uncertainty of future tax avoidance," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 149, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:arqudp:149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brooks, Chris & Godfrey, Chris & Hillenbrand, Carola & Money, Kevin, 2016. "Do investors care about corporate taxes?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-248.
    2. Niemann, Rainer & Sureth, Caren, 2016. "Does capital tax uncertainty delay irreversible risky investment?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 209, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    3. Flagmeier, Vanessa, 2017. "The information content of tax loss carryforwards: IAS 12 vs. valuation allowance," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 216, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    4. Flagmeier, Vanessa & Müller, Jens & Sureth-Sloane, Caren, 2017. "When do managers highlight their effective tax rate?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 214, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    5. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth-Sloane, 2016. "Does Capital Tax Uncertainty Delay Irreversible Risky Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6046, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm valuation; tax avoidance; tax uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

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